{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
  "slug": "mi-07-democratic-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will the Democratic primary winner in Michigan's 7th congressional district be determined by the 2026 primary election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "democratic-primary",
    "michigan",
    "us-house",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic primary winner for Michigan's 7th Congressional District, resolving August 4, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as a set of binary yes/no contracts, one per named candidate, plus placeholder slots and a residual \"other\" leg. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against certified primary results. Traders seeking aggregate nomination probability must sum across individual candidate legs manually.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KTZLWW6P89",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.78,
    "implied_probability": 0.78
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VDY1PC4FN7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1b0d48db53d286731be8004f1ae474b62d811dc8452d6bb43143119ccb055586",
      "question": "Will Alexandra Prieditis be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alexandra Prieditis: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1000,
      "volume_total_usd": 2264.463898,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "mi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3JBZG19Z47",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd2d7b77caa7e513dc8ad74c0c4c66acfbaa7384d79f5d0e4bb4f88666ac3b496",
      "question": "Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bridget Brink: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1R11KYNLP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x28b060c7894022b2b706be95140e1a31138febef5ea9f5cfc5ead8ecacd87a56",
      "question": "Will Elyon Badger be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Elyon Badger: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1121.0101440000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "elyon badger",
        "mi-07"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SL4YM32SN3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4bf69008f3001f6547b74c50f7953958b2d1d85bcc7d1e6ca0088ac1995231c2",
      "question": "Will Josh Cowen be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Josh Cowen: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1377.1408649999998,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "josh cowen",
        "mi-07"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P3BRL4SZB3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2f9712ddd3ca1ca5a94539cd9b72212fa6365c566612fbd62b123985bceb854e",
      "question": "Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Matt Maasdam: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.105,
      "implied_probability": 0.105,
      "volume_24h_usd": 41.71111,
      "volume_total_usd": 9671.881597999994,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "matt maasdam",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZC24XX8VD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc3e6d400981facf9b90349253209c70607f6cfa50e26250429b69da6a7999f08",
      "question": "Will Muhammad Salman Rais be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Muhammad Salman Rais: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1082.14905,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic primary",
        "mi-07",
        "muhammad salman rais"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KTZLWW6P89",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xef7feb067decb2706989f0564f6c283475f08f7496d1c8982a7c7e8555156ac0",
      "question": "Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "William Lawrence: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.78,
      "implied_probability": 0.78,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13.734563,
      "volume_total_usd": 33048.103317,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic primary",
        "mi-07",
        "william lawrence"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5SWDBVJ011",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-M0JKSB8TV5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9d646879a209123d8a896ad3f6bae66583c1c9817547f649c673d005bbca3b9f",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
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