{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
  "slug": "mi-13-democratic-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will the Democratic primary winner be determined for Michigan's 13th congressional district by August 4, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "elections",
    "politics",
    "michigan",
    "democratic-primary",
    "2026-elections",
    "us-house"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic nominee for Michigan's 13th Congressional District primary, resolving August 4, 2026. All contracts are binary and candidate-specific; probabilities must sum to one across the named-candidate set plus the field. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves each contract against official Michigan election results. Late candidate filings or ballot disqualifications could shift probability mass to the \"other\" contract without warning.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Z8CZHFGNW8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.87,
    "implied_probability": 0.87
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x399b69600812f9997ee0dcac06c74c9351f230baa53765eacbc443a77bc520b9",
      "question": "Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Shri Thanedar: The named candidate's status as the Democratic Party nominee for the MI-13 House seat resolves according to official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by August 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x2cfbd8aabc3519021dc16ab0c7e0f42b0fdac191e64bcc3c42c2319c4c0117f3",
      "question": "Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Donavan McKinney: The named candidate's status as the Democratic Party nominee for the MI-13 House seat resolves according to official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by August 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "question": "Will Shelby Campbell be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?",
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      "underlying_reference": "Shelby Campbell: The named candidate's status as the Democratic Party nominee for the MI-13 House seat resolves according to official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by August 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1R6GKZT5L9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfb3b8e9254d919bec8c6f1c1d12cca1e80876abee683774fd1a5e3131aee956f",
      "question": "Will Anthony Carbonaro be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Anthony Carbonaro: The named candidate's status as the Democratic Party nominee for the MI-13 House seat resolves according to official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by August 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DNVL66SFP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe03235b712f8935c0fed7a81bc9f71f8ee8e5ae18e9e5f3f42b09cf7cea08420",
      "question": "Will Nazmul Hassan be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Nazmul Hassan: The named candidate's status as the Democratic Party nominee for the MI-13 House seat resolves according to official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by August 4, 2026.",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XRRVC7DK63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x35f5ca74e6d45cd2597c75a84722a308da2931c8b1fc1253b4d94d3a465e0347",
      "question": "Will another person be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The named candidate's status as the Democratic Party nominee for the MI-13 House seat resolves according to official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by August 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-15JRDKVMY8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b2ceb0e874e58fb5a1954b30c5329683d2cf584e1e63926f7179e002cda08fc",
      "question": "Will Person A be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person A: The named candidate's status as the Democratic Party nominee for the MI-13 House seat resolves according to official Democratic Party sources including democrats.org by August 4, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
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        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VVDML0GP84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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