{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B9Q07BTK55",
  "slug": "michigan-democratic-senate-primary-macomb-county-winner-20260728150015515",
  "question": "Will the Democratic candidate win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "michigan",
    "primary-election",
    "2026",
    "macomb-county"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Macomb County plurality winner in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary. Each contract is a discrete binary on a named candidate, together forming a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive set. All six markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against certified county-level vote totals. Macomb County's working-class suburban composition makes it a bellwether for candidate positioning within the primary field.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LL1135XDW3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.91,
    "implied_probability": 0.91
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LL1135XDW3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B9Q07BTK55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8433670f312ac7e4da05ebf58242122dcf412243ca3a8d02766e0aae1a4a711f",
      "question": "Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County resul",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Abdul El-Sayed: The named candidate receiving the most valid votes in Macomb County for the Michigan Democratic primary election on August 4, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6809.694101,
      "volume_total_usd": 33065.345681000006,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "abdul el sayed",
        "democratic primary",
        "macomb county",
        "michigan"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2WXPBV0Z82",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B9Q07BTK55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xda460c72662977eaa1b7d45579c3cdd0bee65819fd9e749af50af8f8a6ff4252",
      "question": "Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County resul",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Haley Stevens: The named candidate receiving the most valid votes in Macomb County for the Michigan Democratic primary election on August 4, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
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        "caps": [],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F70XYSC518",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x8b65f99b183857366f6ab3069ba6a3e188c0316f9e425571fd1fb0e432bf86d3",
      "question": "Will Candidate A win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County resul",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: The named candidate receiving the most valid votes in Macomb County for the Michigan Democratic primary election on August 4, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "macomb county",
        "michigan"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6H4XTNGQZ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B9Q07BTK55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe44c494462790512119fcc2b2ffe6605559bbbf07da598543faa81b461b3e147",
      "question": "Will Candidate B win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County resul",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The named candidate receiving the most valid votes in Macomb County for the Michigan Democratic primary election on August 4, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "macomb county",
        "michigan"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GN7X3Y2ST2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B9Q07BTK55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb83b5c6fb71a088dfdbfd0c8c1277c4f5e73b44bc83e783ffa4cc6939aadb7ca",
      "question": "Will Candidate C win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County resul",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The named candidate receiving the most valid votes in Macomb County for the Michigan Democratic primary election on August 4, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "michigan"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0JRCFCJJ84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B9Q07BTK55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfcc46484d6f29d4a5834f0aae5d3b33e422e1400cf9cb310a4868a41d8ad95dd",
      "question": "Will another candidate win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County resul",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The named candidate receiving the most valid votes in Macomb County for the Michigan Democratic primary election on August 4, 2026, resolves the market.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most valid votes from Macomb County in the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026.\n\nThe named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.\n\nIf the Macomb County results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Macomb County",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "michigan",
        "other candidate"
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F70XYSC518",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
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      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6H4XTNGQZ4",
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      "deadline_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
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      "source": "platform_api",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-B9Q07BTK55",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}