{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-378QWXVH73",
  "slug": "microsoft-msft-q4-azure-revenue-growth-constant-currency-20260717224940622",
  "question": "Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 38%-40%?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "finance",
    "tech-earnings",
    "azure-growth",
    "quarterly-results",
    "constant-currency"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Microsoft's Azure constant-currency revenue growth rate for fiscal Q4 2026. Polymarket structures the event as five discrete strike tiers: below 38%, 38-40%, 40-42%, 42-44%, and 44% or above. Each tier is a binary contract; collectively they span the full probability distribution over the reported growth rate. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing Microsoft's official Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings materials.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NLBMNMNY83",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.3,
    "implied_probability": 0.3
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MMW9MYCJ10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-378QWXVH73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8ebadca65c9e7d825e1295fa9e4d7918af97d93cee18de152cbdeb77bc4f8a0e",
      "question": "Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) <38%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specif",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<38%: Microsoft's official Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings materials will determine the named metric's reported year-over-year growth rate, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 29, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 68.7938,
      "volume_total_usd": 315.6638,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 38,
      "question_id": "CMX-32A2698328",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "azure",
        "earnings",
        "microsoft azure q4",
        "msft",
        "q4"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NLBMNMNY83",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-378QWXVH73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e50e194b01358ecac4c70cf32d4d7aeb83753111a4cd9a8bdae3b1e4e943cfe",
      "question": "Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 38%-40%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specif",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "38%-40%: Microsoft's official Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings materials will determine the named metric's reported year-over-year growth rate, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 29, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.3,
      "implied_probability": 0.3,
      "volume_24h_usd": 692.267838,
      "volume_total_usd": 9567.650257000032,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FA1D27DB04",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "azure",
        "earnings",
        "microsoft azure q4",
        "msft",
        "q4"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YHG3DFT2T8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-378QWXVH73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x658cf7dd37f3460ff20c0c604dbf25e799c9df3cf4efa9f15503a44ee6a4906d",
      "question": "Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 40%-42%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specif",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "40%-42%: Microsoft's official Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings materials will determine the named metric's reported year-over-year growth rate, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 29, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 76,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.54,
      "implied_probability": 0.54,
      "volume_24h_usd": 264.811665,
      "volume_total_usd": 6024.897797999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B2B8128877",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "azure",
        "earnings",
        "microsoft azure q4",
        "msft",
        "q4"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RF6YM3JCV6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-378QWXVH73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x525c34e89e3dcc4fa82b4d3f6df8f51f9c2bdd19a25ece34695c76a40ca95ea9",
      "question": "Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 42%-44%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specif",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "42%-44%: Microsoft's official Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings materials will determine the named metric's reported year-over-year growth rate, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 29, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 162.83,
      "volume_total_usd": 2774.020779000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": "CMX-FA1D27DB04",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-86BJG2YDH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-378QWXVH73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xce7cf495973ee0550de548cee4ebec9c1bfbc0af61c0ecbe78b81e3a0b894582",
      "question": "Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 44%+%?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specif",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "44%+%: Microsoft's official Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings materials will determine the named metric's reported year-over-year growth rate, resolved by UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 29, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T21:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "volume_24h_usd": 119.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 271.661817,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 44,
      "question_id": "CMX-B64AFF743C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "msft",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-378QWXVH73",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}