{
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    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2J6FV0VH3",
  "slug": "miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",
  "question": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "cuban-politics",
    "leadership-transition",
    "geopolitics",
    "caribbean-region",
    "2026-resolution"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Miguel Díaz-Canel loses his leadership role in Cuba by three sequential 2026 deadlines. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, creating a term-structure of political risk across March 31, June 30, and December 31. The markets are structurally nested: a yes on the March contract implies yes on the later two. No authoritative single source governs Cuban leadership transitions, making resolution contingent on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle dispute process.",
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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            "name": "official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within",
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      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T06:37:21Z",
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