{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
  "slug": "min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer",
  "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?",
  "category": "climate",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "arctic-sea-ice",
    "environmental-measurement",
    "seasonal-extreme",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the minimum Arctic sea ice extent recorded between August 1 and October 1, 2026. The National Snow and Ice Data Center is the authoritative source for measurement. Polymarket structures the event as a discrete tier system: one market prices a sub-4 million square kilometer outcome, five markets cover 200,000-square-kilometer bands from 4.0 to 5.0, and one prices 5.0 and above. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the same NSIDC dataset.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-NZ4FPHGFW7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.36,
    "implied_probability": 0.36
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NZ4FPHGFW7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa776ef6b16f785ca718dfaf177743793acda4ee06c721253b868831f5089590c",
      "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the period August 1 to October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.36,
      "implied_probability": 0.36,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 29014.75221199999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arctic",
        "arctic sea ice",
        "climate",
        "sea ice"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YL989QQQ98",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4c3dcf02d9c59d91b45c6d1d2005b5727587aa8071c02271f89fef4b3bfb38ad",
      "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the period August 1 to October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.132,
      "implied_probability": 0.132,
      "volume_24h_usd": 16.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 2499.940953,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "arctic sea ice",
        "climate",
        "sea ice"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SWC0BQQC96",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2b4c48fee6abf0782b1b9e3f4388f32b028d559e34dbad32c7755c9265514e7c",
      "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the period August 1 to October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.062,
      "implied_probability": 0.062,
      "volume_24h_usd": 69.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 4932.634397000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.6,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arctic",
        "arctic sea ice",
        "climate",
        "sea ice"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VJJW9NLF16",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7dafab1697c0d44a23a28756f18411222eeae558a144640164ff3a5c8eb3818d",
      "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the period August 1 to October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_illustrative",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 14281.328627000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "arctic sea ice",
        "climate",
        "sea ice"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZJ94NXFCR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa185967aec34ff498a0c8c99c5819ae02f0402a2ba568016a9ad1fac75627099",
      "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the period August 1 to October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.149,
      "volume_24h_usd": 27,
      "volume_total_usd": 6228.170799000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "arctic sea ice",
        "climate",
        "sea ice"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QGQ0D3FYN5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1454f7aabd1736d276e3a16c9d3840d5a0f31b15162e92602825db3f27c89f9c",
      "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the period August 1 to October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.106,
      "volume_24h_usd": 45.150000000000006,
      "volume_total_usd": 2773.1249080000016,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arctic",
        "arctic sea ice",
        "climate",
        "sea ice"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VH0P80HT77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x71893b06b5e12945bbd8723ab419be96957314e596ed9e971551a4a93165d994",
      "question": "Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National Snow and Ice Data Center publishes the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for the period August 1 to October 1, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.\n\nThis market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": 2692.3964759999994,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 4.8,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "arctic sea ice",
        "climate",
        "sea ice"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-61H25PYRZ2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}