{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VSMFZ7HY3",
  "slug": "minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-margin-of-victory-20260715150700515",
  "question": "Will the margin of victory in the Minnesota Democratic Senate primary be less than 5 percentage points?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "minnesota",
    "democratic-primary",
    "margin-of-victory"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on August 11, 2026. Polymarket structures both candidates identically, pricing discrete margin tiers from under 5% to 20% or greater for Flanagan and Craig separately. A catch-all contract covers any other outcome, such as a third-candidate result. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing Minnesota Secretary of State official results.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3HTK7TYPY1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WZPDBDCQS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VSMFZ7HY3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb5fc2291018b3a673b4a7b285d768658a8c9d71318b340633ead7fe7dba4ac23",
      "question": "Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by at least 20%?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid vote",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Flanagan 20%+: Minnesota Secretary of State official results for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on August 11, 2026, determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates as a percentage of valid votes cast.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mn.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.102,
      "implied_probability": 0.102,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 356.91355799999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "minnesota",
        "peggy flanagan",
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        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VSMFZ7HY3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x558673c5c91664dafea8b3a25c0848b5b6d6de997211af142f3f26b1ae96c7d3",
      "question": "Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid vote",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Flanagan 15–20%: Minnesota Secretary of State official results for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on August 11, 2026, determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates as a percentage of valid votes cast.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "sos.mn.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.09,
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      "tags": [
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        "minnesota",
        "peggy flanagan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T43W5FFKM6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VSMFZ7HY3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb0ab74e81ee4dd7397842f6d55ba9b8de780075d1684198a041665a3922f62ae",
      "question": "Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid vote",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Flanagan 10–15%: Minnesota Secretary of State official results for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on August 11, 2026, determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates as a percentage of valid votes cast.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mn.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.254,
      "implied_probability": 0.254,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1080.144639,
      "volume_total_usd": 5353.949014,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "democratic",
        "minnesota",
        "peggy flanagan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DK9GHB1Z75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VSMFZ7HY3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb4fb2f8b199fcdf99b3523c6cd997aaf2d9d766979d30da0e3288b6279ac8a93",
      "question": "Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid vote",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mn.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 28,
      "volume_total_usd": 2619.281231,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "minnesota",
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        "primary",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XSDZT0S485",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VSMFZ7HY3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x448ce7a1106e6a8cb6568f015754242d149c3e0b94b1244c2ca51a987ae65c80",
      "question": "Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid vote",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Flanagan <5%: Minnesota Secretary of State official results for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on August 11, 2026, determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates as a percentage of valid votes cast.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mn.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.24,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 959.82,
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      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "minnesota",
        "peggy flanagan",
        "primary",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VDQHL01D40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0VSMFZ7HY3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc1a9b9fcf2efe72739cd53d2916c3400b405513d9ecc18d77b77d90070a41a66",
      "question": "Will Angie Craig win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?",
      "description": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid vote",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Craig <5%: Minnesota Secretary of State official results for the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate primary on August 11, 2026, determine the margin of victory between the top two candidates as a percentage of valid votes cast.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mn.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mn.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Minnesota Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "question": "Will Angie Craig win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?",
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