{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-34B0PNY4K8",
  "slug": "mn-02-republican-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will the Republican Primary winner in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district be determined by August 11, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "minnesota",
    "2026-primary",
    "house-race",
    "republican-primary"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican primary nominee for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, closing August 11, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as a set of binary candidate contracts; probabilities across named candidates Tyler Kistner and Eric Pratt, plus a field option, should sum to one. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing official Republican Party sources including the RNC website. Minnesota primary results certified by state election authorities serve as the authoritative ground truth.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8FYF38K292",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.019,
    "implied_probability": 0.019,
    "as_of": "2026-08-24T19:00:40.574Z"
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd11be7489cd532f74b0682e1ab0fe7ab4b46c8b9068b8a0251c842e73a0d8864",
      "question": "Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Tyler Kistner: Official Republican Party sources, including the RNC website, will confirm which candidate wins the Republican nomination for the named congressional district by August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [],
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      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Eric Pratt be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FW02C039X3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-34B0PNY4K8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd3b2e628c389cf21ac6dcda443a3eeb8420df99ed9662ffa6397944bc556babd",
      "question": "Will Person A be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person A: Official Republican Party sources, including the RNC website, will confirm which candidate wins the Republican nomination for the named congressional district by August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
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      "question": "Will Person B be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J75RSMTNQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-34B0PNY4K8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x381db90c4d48879bde12606eaff8dbc6f9be3beac1ae896873a1b8b2ddd2b0aa",
      "question": "Will Person C be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person C: Official Republican Party sources, including the RNC website, will confirm which candidate wins the Republican nomination for the named congressional district by August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DR9H8VK8H3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-34B0PNY4K8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x855714cd264dcd41931f02be203a81e285f3985eb365389598618eaa4d7f4a41",
      "question": "Will Person D be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person D: Official Republican Party sources, including the RNC website, will confirm which candidate wins the Republican nomination for the named congressional district by August 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PV7XT0R707",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-34B0PNY4K8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Person E be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?",
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