{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
  "slug": "mo-01-democratic-primary-margin-of-victory-20260724180523163",
  "question": "Will the Missouri 1st Congressional District Democratic primary margin of victory be within a specific range by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026-primary",
    "missouri",
    "democratic-primary",
    "margin-of-victory"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the margin of victory in the MO-01 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as discrete margin bands, covering both a Bush win and a Bell win across four intervals plus a 16%-or-greater tier. The eleven contracts together form a mutually exclusive, exhaustive set across all named outcomes. Resolution relies on Missouri Secretary of State official results, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VSZSCKKP77",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M9QX1XGW97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1ddb6e71d2b328aa66bdadd8b3e771dca51995a44dc38890f94160c87443cbc9",
      "question": "Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by at least 16%?",
      "description": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the electi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bush 16%+: Missouri Secretary of State official results for the MO-01 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two candidates.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mo.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "State of Missouri",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Missouri Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Missouri Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1235.840611,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 16,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "democratic primary",
        "mo-01"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YXY4MCKXD7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x22ef143aa6b6b6f465b3ae611559006fb3a2c15abfbf445a4ddef914af9fe9ce",
      "question": "Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 12–16%?",
      "description": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the electi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bush 12–16%: Missouri Secretary of State official results for the MO-01 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two candidates.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mo.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "State of Missouri",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Missouri Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Missouri Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1134.6399999999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "cori bush",
        "cori bush mo",
        "democratic primary",
        "mo-01"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9TQK9HJ722",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd480815797b38246647cb6258ee1c7521fcc0c80f11f13aec077f68a4a50f5ee",
      "question": "Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12%?",
      "description": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the electi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bush 8–12%: Missouri Secretary of State official results for the MO-01 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two candidates.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mo.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "State of Missouri",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Missouri Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Missouri Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1216.3635350000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "cori bush",
        "cori bush mo",
        "democratic primary",
        "mo-01"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-STM90C8275",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x67947ef9a18e9f6b92d42430cfc57558a2be8b0abebd461089a160880a3e2632",
      "question": "Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 4–8%?",
      "description": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the electi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bush 4–8%: Missouri Secretary of State official results for the MO-01 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two candidates.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mo.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "State of Missouri",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Missouri Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Missouri Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15,
      "volume_total_usd": 3639.2629760000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "cori bush",
        "cori bush mo",
        "democratic primary",
        "mo-01"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HKWLZRF902",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb70a492bf4630d2f971d318061282aad88b11331d6dc3f320a1d65fc4d030bae",
      "question": "Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?",
      "description": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the electi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bush <4%: Missouri Secretary of State official results for the MO-01 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two candidates.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mo.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "State of Missouri",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Missouri Secretary of State",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Missouri Secretary of State",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 65,
      "volume_total_usd": 6864.791504000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 4,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "cori bush",
        "cori bush mo",
        "democratic primary",
        "mo-01"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VSZSCKKP77",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-78SJV8G4W4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9e5508b7f97c34c026c9851a2e3d734efeb960eca9f29f2fda05d44d2d522fda",
      "question": "Will Wesley Bell win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?",
      "description": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the electi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bell <4%: Missouri Secretary of State official results for the MO-01 Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, determine the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two candidates.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.\n\nFor the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.\n\nIf the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).\n\nIf two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.\n\nIf the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.\n\nIf a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "sos.mo.gov",
            "url": "https://www.sos.mo.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "State of Missouri",
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