{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
  "slug": "mo-01-democratic-primary-winner",
  "question": "Will a Democrat win the Missouri 1st Congressional District primary by August 4, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "us-primary",
    "missouri",
    "house-race"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Democratic primary nominee for Missouri's 1st Congressional District, resolving August 4, 2026. Each binary contract prices one candidate's nomination probability; together they form a mutually exclusive, exhaustive set. The named candidates are Wesley Bell and Cori Bush, with residual contracts covering other entrants. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official Democratic Party sources.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-07QMBKDPF1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.39,
    "implied_probability": 0.39
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P48BPJDVP9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0d62a8571af67005063a9182c72ede090f29f6e82d8680d61060d9756b49140f",
      "question": "Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Wesley Bell: Official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, determine which candidate wins the nomination for the referenced congressional district's Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, resolving by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11586.089810000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 58270.44938800004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo 01 democratic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-07QMBKDPF1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x74efaa758c3c08921bd143b0a1696b54890834d073fc6df01dfb75f6f4e38528",
      "question": "Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Cori Bush: Official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, determine which candidate wins the nomination for the referenced congressional district's Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, resolving by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7190.225886,
      "volume_total_usd": 67746.542813,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8Y68YHXD05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb70199906617cd7500b98531807fe960982430e5f9d7dc3edac50c36e6e94b35",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: Official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, determine which candidate wins the nomination for the referenced congressional district's Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, resolving by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo 01 democratic"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MCM652WYS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x49b41d3ffcd20efee29e89a75a00f5bc371ec7771978224e6b65cf54a1d5dd99",
      "question": "Will Candidate B be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: Official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, determine which candidate wins the nomination for the referenced congressional district's Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, resolving by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo 01 democratic"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-86FB4248Y4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x69765c25adb1f7a5dd00f7b351da34e8033b5b7c1702d77cd95db7b72d853145",
      "question": "Will Candidate C be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: Official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, determine which candidate wins the nomination for the referenced congressional district's Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, resolving by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo 01 democratic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5PPG0761C6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x77a2e25224e122645a554c1a71dd67269138b7819ad7db2d874b973e4488a75f",
      "question": "Will Candidate D be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate D: Official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, determine which candidate wins the nomination for the referenced congressional district's Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, resolving by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo 01 democratic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8RR34SH224",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd2f261e94f8ce8219ace157cacd3e1f4eb93a6794c343112176a7dc54c0bd9ef",
      "question": "Will Candidate E be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate E: Official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org, determine which candidate wins the nomination for the referenced congressional district's Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, resolving by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://democrats.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "democrats.org",
            "url": "https://democrats.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://democrats.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official Democrat sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "democrats.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo 01 democratic"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-21F5Y408R5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5R5JMMDH59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x15f197c52357ef0e06a5fad88365cb5c3fd8c02ea83a2ba94f77ca1d376623a0",
      "question": "Will Candidate F be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?",
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