{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
  "slug": "mo-05-republican-primary-winner-20260708141645769",
  "question": "Will the Republican primary winner in Missouri's 5th congressional district be determined by August 4, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "republican-primary",
    "missouri",
    "us-congress"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Republican primary nominee for Missouri's 5th Congressional District, with the primary scheduled for August 4, 2026. Each market is a binary contract on one named candidate winning the nomination. All ten markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using official Republican National Committee confirmation as the authoritative source. The field includes named entrants plus placeholder slots for late-entering candidates.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6Z1MQXZ837",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.93,
    "implied_probability": 0.93
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DKQMDT5MN1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x392a4e8a15fc47a4fc26935988e6022bdd5c908b9ae80e3f268512afa2acb8fd",
      "question": "Will Micah Beebe be the MO-05 Republican nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Micah Beebe: Official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee, will confirm the named candidate selected as the MO-05 Republican nominee by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rnc.org",
            "url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "rnc.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 8,
      "volume_total_usd": 750.2733330000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "micah beebe",
        "mo-05",
        "primary",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6Z1MQXZ837",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbd9943fecfed3b3ff0afb2eb7fc5e5d1e9ba315eb8938e3dfe8e6860f7a72ecd",
      "question": "Will Rick Brattin be the MO-05 Republican nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Rick Brattin: Official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee, will confirm the named candidate selected as the MO-05 Republican nominee by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rnc.org",
            "url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "rnc.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.93,
      "implied_probability": 0.93,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2317.304236,
      "volume_total_usd": 8100.082239,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "primary",
        "republican",
        "rick brattin"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-155LRNPKB0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac6f079a03d23ce21f6bdcadcec6f924ef3b1432d0f118c1ee3f5019c58a5de5",
      "question": "Will Taylor Burks be the MO-05 Republican nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Taylor Burks: Official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee, will confirm the named candidate selected as the MO-05 Republican nominee by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rnc.org",
            "url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "rnc.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.058,
      "implied_probability": 0.058,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1575.08522,
      "volume_total_usd": 3994.662128,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "mo-05",
        "primary",
        "republican",
        "taylor burks"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5FH8XDLZS3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfaffd98c8d1eae876d36f6857adc4a34f25d2f921ca35ba9cc54467c10c5a1d6",
      "question": "Will Brett Hueffmeier be the MO-05 Republican nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brett Hueffmeier: Official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee, will confirm the named candidate selected as the MO-05 Republican nominee by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rnc.org",
            "url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "rnc.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.036,
      "implied_probability": 0.036,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2736.62126,
      "volume_total_usd": 3752.8205459999995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "mo-05",
        "primary",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PYZVXT2696",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x72731392146c04519d9a6478989fe3c3e1645de2a9074bb52e8b516e70209575",
      "question": "Will Berton A. Knox be the MO-05 Republican nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Berton A. Knox: Official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee, will confirm the named candidate selected as the MO-05 Republican nominee by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rnc.org",
            "url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "rnc.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 535.292083,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "mo-05",
        "primary",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T4RY78Y960",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x054a9fddc029eee1dd123d0b1979592267370744d839e8cbfb2b193a0705e4a3",
      "question": "Will Brad Patty be the MO-05 Republican nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brad Patty: Official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee, will confirm the named candidate selected as the MO-05 Republican nominee by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "rnc.org",
            "url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "rnc.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.012,
      "implied_probability": 0.012,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 254.2,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brad patty",
        "mo-05",
        "primary",
        "republican"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V3JBD1C2X9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x71cc6b94ad18928e26f5b9e60be0c46e100633b58cd473aae6bc3223bf763b39",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the MO-05 Republican nominee?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: Official Republican sources, including the Republican National Committee, will confirm the named candidate selected as the MO-05 Republican nominee by August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.\n\nIf no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.\n\nAny replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.rnc.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "rnc.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "candidate",
        "mo-05",
        "primary",
        "republican"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H5ZJNKLBN1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B1TVTJTVW1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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