{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TQCR95JL6",
  "slug": "mohammed-bin-salman-out-as-leader-of-saudi-arabia-by",
  "question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman no longer be the leader of Saudi Arabia by the settlement date?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "saudi-arabia",
    "leadership-succession",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be Saudi Arabia's de facto leader by three sequential deadlines in 2026: June 30, September 30, and December 31. The three contracts form a tenor structure; a near-term resolution YES implies all later contracts also resolve YES. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which assesses de facto leadership status at each deadline. The de facto framing introduces interpretive risk, as formal title changes and actual power transitions may not coincide.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-4GQ82BSM36",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.002,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4GQ82BSM36",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TQCR95JL6",
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      "question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the d",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: The UMA Optimistic Oracle will resolve based on whether the named individual ceases to hold de facto leadership of the referenced nation by July 2, 2026, via resignation announcement, removal, detention, or permanent incapacity.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-02T05:32:50Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1706351.935414999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "leadership",
        "mohammed bin salman",
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        "saudi arabia"
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TQCR95JL6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x18a02934bc2585f6e317720ecd4d06c8889fcdebadbdcfb052d38a8db0493e31",
      "question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the d",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: The UMA Optimistic Oracle will resolve based on whether the named individual ceases to hold de facto leadership of the referenced nation by July 2, 2026, via resignation announcement, removal, detention, or permanent incapacity.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "source": null,
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "price_as_of": null,
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      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "leadership",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VHHWL5QWG9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7TQCR95JL6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb75da764f8b8363d534eba91c4fb19ceb666272f6fb1aa4ef66bdf7ae3e34b30",
      "question": "Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the d",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The UMA Optimistic Oracle will resolve based on whether the named individual ceases to hold de facto leadership of the referenced nation by July 2, 2026, via resignation announcement, removal, detention, or permanent incapacity.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "sources": [
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.047,
      "implied_probability": 0.047,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 519.693159,
      "volume_total_usd": 96350.83869699998,
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      "tags": [
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        "saudi arabia"
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
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      "deadline_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-02T05:32:50Z",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-7TQCR95JL6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}