{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K14RLR1RK7",
  "slug": "mohammed-ghalibaf-out-as-speaker-of-iran-parliament-byptptpt-20260709235401297",
  "question": "Will Mohammed Ghalibaf no longer be Speaker of Iran's Parliament in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran-parliament",
    "leadership-transition",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Mohammed Ghalibaf will lose the Iran Parliament Speaker position by three successive deadlines in 2026. The July, September, and December contracts are sequential binary options on the same political event. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Earlier-dated contracts price near-term removal risk; later dates embed longer exposure to Iranian political shifts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GL9QTTSJ92",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.042,
    "implied_probability": 0.042
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL9QTTSJ92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K14RLR1RK7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x647657db54b66c1257c84fdc53e649e66072def5830a3fd5df755f47768cbcbf",
      "question": "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the speci",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.042,
      "implied_probability": 0.042,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1313.784803,
      "volume_total_usd": 19660.728087999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ghalibaf",
        "iran",
        "mohammed ghalibaf iran",
        "parliament",
        "speaker"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DV11G1L8T6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K14RLR1RK7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x487a2c7f3e43fdb74fe584b3ec3596cef5f26f37fd8eed1370256dbcb45898b8",
      "question": "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the speci",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2148.526218,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ghalibaf",
        "iran",
        "mohammed ghalibaf iran",
        "parliament",
        "speaker"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SMH5K4R2N9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K14RLR1RK7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x04646097993a3f048d428dcc051596a0f9962c7955540983a5815eef02e55edf",
      "question": "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the speci",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.2,
      "implied_probability": 0.2,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3407.4884199999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ghalibaf",
        "iran",
        "mohammed ghalibaf iran",
        "parliament",
        "speaker"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-K14RLR1RK7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}