{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TBB1P0GR93",
  "slug": "mt-02-house-election-winner",
  "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the Montana 2nd Congressional District House seat in the 2026 election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "montana",
    "house-races",
    "us-congress"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the Montana 2nd Congressional District House election, resolving November 3, 2026. Polymarket structures the event across two layers: party-outcome markets (Republican, Democrat, other) and candidate-specific markets (A through E). All eight markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Federal Election Commission records of ballot-listed party affiliation. Candidate placeholders suggest the field is not yet finalized; party-level markets offer the cleaner signal for now.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XKSFXXVC83",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.95,
    "implied_probability": 0.95,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XKSFXXVC83",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TBB1P0GR93",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcc88455563aeff8473ed34a4c77671b3444a81ab2aaba1e11bc6526f32ddc4a0",
      "question": "Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Republican Party: Federal Election Commission records of the winning candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation in Montana's 2nd congressional district House race, conclusively called by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "fec.gov",
            "url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.95,
      "implied_probability": 0.95,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 200,
      "volume_total_usd": 26143.689503999994,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "mt-02",
        "republican party"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TBB1P0GR93",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x2abdf732aad2c0be398af2f7bdc3292839bd74a9f7b9aed65fd1cab6bcb493c0",
      "question": "Will the Democratic Party win the MT-02 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Democratic Party: Federal Election Commission records of the winning candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation in Montana's 2nd congressional district House race, conclusively called by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 669,
      "volume_total_usd": 18192.788726000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x255b662bd421a3ba900a3860a2211c1a52dd758e027ee871a1b3934598b9712f",
      "question": "Will another party win the MT-02 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: Federal Election Commission records of the winning candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation in Montana's 2nd congressional district House race, conclusively called by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "mt-02",
        "other party"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NP1MQD6XQ1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TBB1P0GR93",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe8269e1593be89a61afea1b5f350b881420f49b9bc99ad167b2dab1f1b5ffb05",
      "question": "Will A win the MT-02 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A: Federal Election Commission records of the winning candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation in Montana's 2nd congressional district House race, conclusively called by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1X1KFCWMX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TBB1P0GR93",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe2a6f132e474e4bfa0a42af27689c6334ed4b13087e53b089768e3cc53820b44",
      "question": "Will B win the MT-02 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "B: Federal Election Commission records of the winning candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation in Montana's 2nd congressional district House race, conclusively called by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "house",
        "mt-02"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XHW8BHS524",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TBB1P0GR93",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe6c55422117204fe72ac66158c1a51ba4c0eaf3d0c1ed8fcca6323aaf6470fa3",
      "question": "Will C win the MT-02 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "C: Federal Election Commission records of the winning candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation in Montana's 2nd congressional district House race, conclusively called by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-302MJ1JJF6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TBB1P0GR93",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9bf3e23054aedfe1f936db3cf4d400bc3dfe1b11f18303ba33d5d4c3a96876b8",
      "question": "Will D win the MT-02 House seat?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these p",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "D: Federal Election Commission records of the winning candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation in Montana's 2nd congressional district House race, conclusively called by November 3, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.\n\n​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://www.fec.gov/",
        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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