{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
  "slug": "nato-article-5-before-2027",
  "question": "Will NATO Article 5 be invoked before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nato",
    "collective-defense",
    "military-conflict",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any NATO member officially invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty before January 1, 2027. The observation window runs from November 5, 2025 through December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on NATO's official website at nato.int announcing a formal invocation. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle settles the contract against that authoritative publication.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XVD0B6PFT1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.071,
    "implied_probability": 0.071,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XVD0B6PFT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7743a393cd98bb7a7cd011361b74a0fd12bac3412643873f4661fcc431ed165",
      "question": "NATO article 5 before 2027?",
      "description": "If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "NATO's official website (nato.int) announces whether any NATO member invokes Article 5 between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "nato.int",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "nato.int",
            "url": "nato.int",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NATO (nato.int)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "nato.int",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.071,
      "implied_probability": 0.071,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 123.129028,
      "volume_total_usd": 212758.82469399992,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "nato",
        "nato article invocation",
        "security"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}