{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
  "slug": "nato-article-5-before-2027",
  "question": "Will NATO Article 5 be invoked before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "nato",
    "article-5",
    "geopolitics",
    "military-conflict",
    "collective-defense",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any NATO member formally invokes Article 5 of the Washington Treaty before January 1, 2027. A single binary outcome is priced on Polymarket, resolving YES if nato.int confirms an invocation within the specified window. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol, referencing NATO's official website as the authoritative source. No parallel rate-level or magnitude market exists on a second platform for cross-structural comparison.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XVD0B6PFT1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XVD0B6PFT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe7743a393cd98bb7a7cd011361b74a0fd12bac3412643873f4661fcc431ed165",
      "question": "NATO article 5 before 2027?",
      "description": "If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "NATO's official website (nato.int) announces whether any NATO member invokes Article 5 between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "nato.int",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "nato.int",
            "url": "nato.int",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "NATO (nato.int)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "credible media",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1105.182785,
      "volume_total_usd": 165081.89620700022,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "nato",
        "nato article invocation",
        "security"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}