{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-21NF9MCZJ1",
  "slug": "nato-dissolves-before-2027",
  "question": "Will NATO dissolve before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nato",
    "international-relations",
    "institutional-dissolution",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the probability that NATO formally dissolves as a legal entity before January 1, 2027. Resolution requires official withdrawal notices from member states or a formal change in NATO's legal status. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement, referencing NATO member states' official communications as the authoritative source. No cross-platform contrast is available; only one market exists for this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-39KMHPLS17",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.019,
    "implied_probability": 0.019
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-39KMHPLS17",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-21NF9MCZJ1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf3fe597da58af1ccd31a976c1a7d5a4ab27b7fc6dea99a1f66e223db3f681de8",
      "question": "NATO dissolves before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:\n\n1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.\n\n2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.\n \n3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.\n\nNATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "NATO member states' official withdrawal notices and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's legal status as determined by UMA Optimistic Oracle through December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nNATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:\n\n1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.\n\n2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.\n \n3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.\n\nNATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from NATO and NATO member states",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 44,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.019,
      "implied_probability": 0.019,
      "volume_24h_usd": 52,
      "volume_total_usd": 113811.64626299993,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "international-relations",
        "nato"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-21NF9MCZJ1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}