{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0XQBBK1P10",
  "slug": "nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025",
  "question": "Will there be a NATO-Russia military clash by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "nato-russia",
    "military-conflict",
    "geopolitics",
    "2025",
    "trump",
    "kinetic-warfare"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the probability of a direct military clash between NATO and Russian forces across four sequential deadlines in 2025 and 2026. Each contract extends the horizon, creating an implicit term structure of escalation risk. Later-dated contracts should price at or above earlier ones, since the event space is cumulative. Resolution in each case follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3LYX2HLXF4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "question": "NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces a",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T08:46:51Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nInterception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.\n\nIntentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.\n\nMilitary contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026?",
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      "question": "NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 12, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HM",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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      "question": "NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and",
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