{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
  "slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
  "question": "Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "macro-single",
    "gdp-growth",
    "recession-risk",
    "2026-economic-performance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether U.S. real GDP growth turns negative for full-year 2026. Resolution depends on the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate of Q4 2026 GDP, published in January 2027. Only one market exists here, structured as a binary outcome on Polymarket. Settlement uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the BEA release.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VCX9PVPXZ0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.076,
    "implied_probability": 0.076
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VCX9PVPXZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1",
      "question": "Negative GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.\n\nOnly the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Advance Estimate of Q4 2026 GDP, released in January 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-29T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-29T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.\n\nOnly the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.076,
      "implied_probability": 0.076,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 31262.799667999985,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-11C743D32B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "us gdp growth",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}