{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
  "slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
  "question": "Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "macro-single",
    "economy",
    "gdp-recession",
    "2026-economic-data",
    "annual-growth"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether U.S. real GDP growth will be negative for full-year 2026. Resolution depends on the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate of Q4 2026 GDP, published in January 2027. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle settles the binary outcome. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-VCX9PVPXZ0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.022,
    "implied_probability": 0.022,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VCX9PVPXZ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1",
      "question": "Negative GDP growth in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.\n\nOnly the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Advance Estimate of Q4 2026 GDP, released in January 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-29T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-29T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.\n\nThe GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.\n\nOnly the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "bea.gov",
            "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 93,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T08:00:41.128Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.049166,
      "volume_total_usd": 33280.38895200001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 0,
      "question_id": "CMX-11C743D32B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "economic-growth",
        "gdp",
        "us gdp growth",
        "us-economy"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}