{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZFB3VP3Z73",
  "slug": "netanyahu-arrested-by-20260720194516248",
  "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "israel",
    "legal-proceedings",
    "2026",
    "international-law",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be arrested by three sequential deadlines in 2026. The September 30, October 31, and December 31 contracts are nested binary outcomes on the same underlying event. A resolution of the earlier contract to \"yes\" implies resolution of all later contracts to \"yes.\" All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8V5CW479P8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.027,
    "implied_probability": 0.027
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8V5CW479P8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZFB3VP3Z73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x46140ed5e76465f4d080934a0215f102de54b02651441820f5e8eb5c8b53787a",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:\n\n(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;\n(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;\n(",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:\n\n(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;\n(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;\n(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or\n(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.\n\nThe issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.\n\nRelease on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the arresting government and law enforcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.027,
      "implied_probability": 0.027,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6251.600289,
      "volume_total_usd": 9123.791675,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arrest",
        "benjamin netanyahu arrest",
        "israel",
        "netanyahu"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NNML21DJH3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZFB3VP3Z73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x550fe73ab40f6cdee010dbbed001279b1662d2849cfd3eba2f58e5921d00156e",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:\n\n(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;\n(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;\n(",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:\n\n(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;\n(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;\n(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or\n(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.\n\nThe issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.\n\nRelease on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the arresting government and law enforcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": 111.363332,
      "volume_total_usd": 5333.336217,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arrest",
        "benjamin netanyahu arrest",
        "israel",
        "netanyahu"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3KQBB3PGG4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZFB3VP3Z73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "3020414",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by October 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:\n\n(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;\n(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;\n(",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:\n\n(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;\n(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;\n(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or\n(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.\n\nThe issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.\n\nRelease on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the arresting government and law enforcement",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arrest",
        "benjamin netanyahu arrest",
        "israel",
        "netanyahu"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3KQBB3PGG4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-ZFB3VP3Z73",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}