{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V400VQRJ96",
  "slug": "netanyahu-drops-out-of-israel-election-by-july-31",
  "question": "Will Netanyahu drop out of the Israel election by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "israel-elections",
    "Netanyahu",
    "2026",
    "political-withdrawal",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Benjamin Netanyahu makes a definitive public announcement of non-participation in an Israeli election. The July 31 market closes first; the September 30 market extends the observation window by two months. Each market resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle upon a qualifying announcement. Resolution requires a confirmed public statement, not polling signals or coalition reports.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YWFW7K2CZ3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YWFW7K2CZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V400VQRJ96",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x54340f047993498875e98e36447577fffa83a23de09b613ab7b2e98bbb7b41dc",
      "question": "Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: The named candidate's definitive public announcement of non-participation resolves via UMA Optimistic Oracle by August 1, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC, using official statements or credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:04:59Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Benjamin Netanyahu",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 108753.194112,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "benjamin netanyahu israel",
        "election",
        "israel",
        "netanyahu",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RTFBJJJCQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V400VQRJ96",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x819f788a4f4142ac9df2393dedb9c0fd1e5d3c546242d0f52cf671186b195ec7",
      "question": "Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?",
      "description": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: The named candidate's definitive public announcement of non-participation resolves via UMA Optimistic Oracle by August 1, 2026, 6:04 AM UTC, using official statements or credible reporting consensus.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Benjamin Netanyahu",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 56,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.025,
      "implied_probability": 0.025,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 3985,
      "volume_total_usd": 57342.434611,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "benjamin netanyahu israel",
        "election",
        "israel",
        "netanyahu",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YWFW7K2CZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-08-01T06:04:59Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V400VQRJ96",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}