{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LTD4KR3MF4",
  "slug": "netanyahu-out-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out of office in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-politics",
    "executive-succession",
    "middle-east",
    "2026",
    "political-leadership"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by sequential calendar deadlines in 2026. Each binary contract resolves YES if official government announcements or credible reporting confirm his departure by the named date. Earlier strikes — March 31 and April 30 — function as near-term probability anchors; later strikes extend the curve through December 31. Resolution across all six contracts uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-11CRQF6041",
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LTD4KR3MF4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x73a4b0e6dca901bb8cb7556db7445e21b5654fc4b3b0856babee8e2f82094112",
      "question": "Netanyahu out by May 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "May 31: The named candidate ceases to be Prime Minister per official government announcements or credible reporting consensus by April 5, 2026, resolved via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-05-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-01T06:31:27Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "source": null,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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    {
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      "question": "Netanyahu out by end of 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The named candidate ceases to be Prime Minister per official government announcements or credible reporting consensus by April 5, 2026, resolved via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.48,
      "implied_probability": 0.48,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-11CRQF6041",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LTD4KR3MF4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x7cb525e831729325d651017f81cbcb6f1adde5011c7b2283babea00b4ae93ae7",
      "question": "Netanyahu out by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: The named candidate ceases to be Prime Minister per official government announcements or credible reporting consensus by April 5, 2026, resolved via UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-05T06:13:09Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YZFQ7VN883",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x865303ccb9a48341d1bae33b3b4379ca86d5abbff3ce1e132716631cc0af3cce",
      "question": "Netanyahu out by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be",
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      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question": "Netanyahu out by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YZFQ7VN883",
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      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
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      "resolved_at": "2026-06-01T06:31:27Z",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    {
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    {
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LTD4KR3MF4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}