{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
  "slug": "next-bosniak-president-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina",
  "question": "Will the next President of Bosnia and Herzegovina be Bosniak?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "bosnia-herzegovina",
    "2026",
    "bosniak-politics",
    "presidency"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the Bosniak seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina's three-member Presidency in the October 2026 general election. Polymarket lists named candidates separately: Denis Bećirović, Semir Efendić, and Bakir Izetbegović each have individual binary contracts, with residual probability captured in an \"other candidate\" contract. All 29 markets are mutually exclusive and sum to one outcome. Resolution follows official Bosnian electoral authority results, confirmed through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZSW4C6KBG3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.59,
    "implied_probability": 0.59,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T10:00:46.254Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZSW4C6KBG3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xebc5b3358c646e7c0398954e3e78f5cf2d733e713c663ac40800b37785763013",
      "question": "Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Denis Bećirović: The named candidate's election as Bosniak Presidency member resolves per official results from Bosnia and Herzegovina's October 4, 2026 general election, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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            "name": "Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.59,
      "implied_probability": 0.59,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T10:00:46.254Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 19.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 27162.660183999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RL2M0SYD29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x1d574625cdeabb37452dad978ae59587ca7a004fe84d372b11f3197de2f3f1e8",
      "question": "Will Semir Efendić be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Semir Efendić: The named candidate's election as Bosniak Presidency member resolves per official results from Bosnia and Herzegovina's October 4, 2026 general election, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T11:01:01.581Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5SNPP30PL3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa55704c6a43efa5e57552ae4a91e3a1817873988c73c8760bd14a1e4316982ac",
      "question": "Will another candidate be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The named candidate's election as Bosniak Presidency member resolves per official results from Bosnia and Herzegovina's October 4, 2026 general election, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "next bosniak president"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2BTNVZDK80",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x648232495a85b771c95b25799bb47c11810c11c8d0c56300d0ffbb50436bcc06",
      "question": "Will Bakir Izetbegović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bakir Izetbegović: The named candidate's election as Bosniak Presidency member resolves per official results from Bosnia and Herzegovina's October 4, 2026 general election, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T10:00:46.254Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.49,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SGXB4B963",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x55d1fb96f9299c5d443ab6d83bb25569c834a68034fa7578bd23df273ea35185",
      "question": "Will Candidate B be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The named candidate's election as Bosniak Presidency member resolves per official results from Bosnia and Herzegovina's October 4, 2026 general election, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C6F8HBXGM4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1c0092b5277c4aee4f3d6af6b714f708cbd806d9f59ce02e9b699f30bba8c8bf",
      "question": "Will Candidate C be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The named candidate's election as Bosniak Presidency member resolves per official results from Bosnia and Herzegovina's October 4, 2026 general election, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "caps": [
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M8JW0X8YY4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5PV1NLN023",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4481e07ed564456e363d5c813c6b3712ea0df65e391af5a39021296962a1ce9a",
      "question": "Will Candidate D be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate D: The named candidate's election as Bosniak Presidency member resolves per official results from Bosnia and Herzegovina's October 4, 2026 general election, confirmed by UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
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      "question": "Will Candidate E be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
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      "question": "Will Candidate I be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
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      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
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      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "question": "Will Candidate L be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
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      "question": "Will Candidate P be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
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      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker",
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