{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
  "slug": "next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-held",
  "question": "Will the party holding the most seats win the next Brazil Senate election by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "brazil",
    "senate",
    "2026",
    "partisan-control"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which party holds the most seats in Brazil's 81-seat Senate after the October 4, 2026 election. Each Polymarket contract is a binary on a single named party; together they form a mutually exclusive set covering the full field. The Brazilian Federal Senate is the authoritative source for final seat composition. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol, applied per party contract.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FTKFB1RJC9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
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  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x3e19c83bb46f87a096d80c0ddb9e4cb8e945cc00b23e3f38fce2d2a5f2eb88b7",
      "question": "Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alph",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Federal Senate publishes the composition of all 81 seats following the October 4, 2026 election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": "https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido",
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 85,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 664.4790600000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd35fd2ee73be45434ba5c2ea99c9a3936c928ce59546be18f4ace00c6d6ee0e0",
      "question": "Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alph",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Federal Senate publishes the composition of all 81 seats following the October 4, 2026 election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0fd58b8cc096471f4b61488308ac5532ed360971af2ed98b20edca6375beda59",
      "question": "Will Progressistas (PP) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alph",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Federal Senate publishes the composition of all 81 seats following the October 4, 2026 election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).",
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        "source_citation": "https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido",
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        "grade": "B",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.077,
      "implied_probability": 0.077,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1319.671327,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-23NDDBF4Q8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6673f92a8400560e3c467dcdbbacbc20e42a6547c741bd17b8eb700f98255955",
      "question": "Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alph",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Federal Senate publishes the composition of all 81 seats following the October 4, 2026 election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).",
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        "source_citation": "https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido",
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        "score": 85,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 845.9708749999999,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6S96BZQ579",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x4e7c61caea7979dd89197ea3dbbcc421c786788706abe154461bdad7bf9598b6",
      "question": "Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alph",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Federal Senate publishes the composition of all 81 seats following the October 4, 2026 election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).",
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        "source_citation": "https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido",
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        "score": 85,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_total_usd": 677.6242,
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FTKFB1RJC9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x8b77c0c1dff39de3ca0182bd0cee0497034c9bcd78c2d86ccb4e858202351947",
      "question": "Will Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alph",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Federal Senate publishes the composition of all 81 seats following the October 4, 2026 election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).",
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        "caps": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LHQHV6D330",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x3e2cae7b81cad2c378add4f126022a5c4a590298b45d52921db64d928855eb87",
      "question": "Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nAll seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.\n\nIn the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alph",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazilian Federal Senate publishes the composition of all 81 seats following the October 4, 2026 election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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