{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
  "slug": "next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won",
  "question": "Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "brazil",
    "senate",
    "2026",
    "seat-allocation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which party wins the most seats in Brazil's October 4, 2026 Senate election. Each Polymarket contract isolates a single named party as a binary outcome. The full set covers named parties plus an \"another party\" catch-all, forming a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive structure. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official results certified by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C65J7LDWF5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.73,
    "implied_probability": 0.73
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  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd8d831632d2eb3873772ef2d6028b312bb0b5d5d7c387587a5d0ba2e578fc01d",
      "question": "Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Brazilian Electoral Justice (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) announces the official results of the October 4, 2026 Senate election seat distribution by party.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_total_usd": 2647.9137680000003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "partido social democr",
        "psd",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PV67LVBSK5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x654637f3566d5db845388d3a87cf73c630123673d4a9df4f4ebac68d7b4aefb1",
      "question": "Will Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Brazilian Electoral Justice (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) announces the official results of the October 4, 2026 Senate election seat distribution by party.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x81ccb2208182821ac0714db0f22fb43120c9ce4376dffca61262a34a7f071ae8",
      "question": "Will União Brasil (UNIÃO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Brazilian Electoral Justice (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) announces the official results of the October 4, 2026 Senate election seat distribution by party.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "tags": [
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        "união"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B9SXPPWMJ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x47d99ce20539d6bd59ce71d4471e0dca52d22995de40d35a3d4daefd328d34d4",
      "question": "Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Brazilian Electoral Justice (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) announces the official results of the October 4, 2026 Senate election seat distribution by party.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2268.20199,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "psb",
        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2WZ9C0XK71",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a2bd932d34f0c118f954a30b7abbdb2ada7bf63a674622e96f953c48977c93b",
      "question": "Will Partido Novo (NOVO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Brazilian Electoral Justice (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) announces the official results of the October 4, 2026 Senate election seat distribution by party.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_total_usd": 2692.5605120000005,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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        "senate"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C65J7LDWF5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbd30a99e5e7572bcf8cb89def3fcaabbd59afdb343f931de2b261e8f42ad716d",
      "question": "Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Brazilian Electoral Justice (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) announces the official results of the October 4, 2026 Senate election seat distribution by party.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.73,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4152.443325,
      "volume_total_usd": 256149.59678299993,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PR1FVH7893",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x10ad3364b5db814ffd63d76ecedb2b95d5ac8e6d93c3ac475de0c74061e5eeed",
      "question": "Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Brazilian Electoral Justice (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) announces the official results of the October 4, 2026 Senate election seat distribution by party.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.143,
      "implied_probability": 0.143,
      "volume_24h_usd": 551.61582,
      "volume_total_usd": 6776.072991999999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "election",
        "mdb",
        "movimento democr tico",
        "senate"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LJ9R0SLD44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd97e4145a74e0104a53c00a6e4eac88fe5a599417c97500f643b2c106fee43e1",
      "question": "Will Podemos (PODEMOS) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?",
      "description": "The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. \n\nOnly seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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