{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
  "slug": "next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232",
  "question": "Will the next Claude Opus be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "claude",
    "anthropic",
    "model-release",
    "large-language-models"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Anthropic releases the next Claude Opus model by various deadlines in 2026. All 11 contracts are binary and structured identically, spanning near-term dates in July through December 2026. The strip functions as an implied release timeline: prices across sequential strikes reveal the market's probability distribution over Anthropic's launch window. Resolution in each case is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MX23VS9YL8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LC0CJ8W034",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa656c3d0a13e7cac35fd8b9f0c877a01908b495679529f40b1a6938c1add781e",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 23730.535823,
      "volume_total_usd": 57217.286910999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B6521A41F5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude opus next",
        "model-release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MS5VKZ0BM0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x237c01fa34d9e79daa38d452d420ff072679c884365ab22bfd35deebf3c55b11",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 422.058234,
      "volume_total_usd": 7423.817835,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-34FE66F556",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude opus next",
        "model-release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8QP6TSWQP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfae47255997952920c80e0b5dbb955eef32552223ca509a63d0caed3837d5a73",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 843.6622209999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 4051.3762289999977,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BCE0D406D7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude opus next",
        "model-release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MX23VS9YL8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7b2b0ac174514a7ec6351f91a01edd5064cf670c29f539cdfcc4d88bdb9937d0",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 49181.06158600003,
      "volume_total_usd": 181902.07846500017,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FF688D144",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "claude opus next",
        "model-release"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MHGJ145T54",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7599692946a7740fee47587a923fb1c4686db5b70a0ce4d3fa8dbcd654cf653f",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-18T06:19:40Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.014,
      "implied_probability": 0.014,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 10721.729620000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C3C8A72A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude opus next",
        "model-release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LPW3LXCKZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x78322c43b6c76c3f29208ae75bf81d455c3b3b803c891a8945e25fe4376a3a8e",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 24: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 76707.11499400005,
      "volume_total_usd": 162316.58034299978,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F971F0BD61",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-YJ5KFYRND4",
          "price": 0.04
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "anthropic",
        "claude opus next",
        "model-release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-X98MJRQTQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-XCSPP0W7T4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6f8418db623fb6fc23e7b2fa9eba751865973e76d2533b4f1de5627255c61b72",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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