{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
  "slug": "next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260714203533730",
  "question": "Will Claude Opus be released by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "claude",
    "model-release",
    "anthropic",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the release date of Anthropic's next Claude Opus model. Polymarket structures the event as a mutually exclusive date strip, with each binary contract covering a single calendar day from July 15 through July 31, 2026, plus a no-release tail. The strip collectively forms an implied probability distribution over the release date, readable as a discrete hazard function. All contracts resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, creating a shared resolution dependency across the entire strip.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Z36SVRNHV3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GYMWNQ9P56",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x511c2054d52c9306bf6b435a3366eb9523b12430f16e75e3b3f47d92e7796090",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to July 15, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 15 or prior: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-15T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-16T06:21:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 30,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-375372435D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H4MCPSC634",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb7c31217bc6422655e14a5f61f620fd3f07e287f846edaf8de950902c94f3c4e",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 16, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 16: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-16T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-17T07:22:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 190.8212,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-47A725B96E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGVS0P62S2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd80ac3e5a4ebbd9a72c97a6e3e391b632c687ffb7025a12c27cb524c5b437644",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-18T06:35:40Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 250,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C3C8A72A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z4VCYJYT44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x692bb41014b8580dae9ba29f468c443364bead48b51b358e5dbcaad15212105e",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 18, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 18: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-18T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-19T06:02:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.049,
      "implied_probability": 0.049,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1017.7202520000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1DA14690BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XNJRXDBBQ9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7a9a59b42ed2b28475ff59c709eb8abe33deda01847310e1a2de66f943dc0c51",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 19, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 19: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-19T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-20T06:04:16Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 973.996948,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-3C581B8F81",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FN3114BRF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf8af69c07a311ad528d7728eae2e393cecfb26724d6b0e3011892bc8984e3279",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 20, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 20: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-20T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-21T06:02:42Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.06,
      "implied_probability": 0.06,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1770.655526,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-34AC8A4FBD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53TJ3X4FZ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe9f0efa204252535fb935ca5cfd09a2270bd5ccf6b912807bfd08704e7923daa",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 21: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-21T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-22T06:02:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8152.810592000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C0D4FCE81A",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-7LT0BD1Q83",
          "price": 0.01
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HJCZS3ZSX1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x87c9dc021c3162aca56931a6001297c3cf50f3a7cb76e3d9a03a16ee247ee8d5",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 22, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 22: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-22T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-23T06:02:40Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": 258.74399999999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 2888.045669,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BFF7F6EE5B",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-3XSY7288H4",
          "price": 0.02
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z36SVRNHV3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5b959c33934f4ac4e97f292428623696cf1337f49ea982276111639a50b3d0ca",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 23: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-23T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-23T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 55606.46227700001,
      "volume_total_usd": 63876.48638500005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6200C4DCF1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXTQ05Y8Z7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1a4c4276d42af0e345e9eb37acdb3d0c22a128951b28fb93e37263124cee092a",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 24: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 22596.057179,
      "volume_total_usd": 23019.061817000013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F971F0BD61",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-YJ5KFYRND4",
          "price": 0.04
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-94S1Z3D7V6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcfdf071a6e231608b103276900c5688ee53cc1723f03856f7c2245e9d9706e95",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 25, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 25: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-25T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-25T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6623.664733,
      "volume_total_usd": 8193.575132,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5222E55D3F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NT0YG9Q054",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd416ddfc66100d3e87ae0d2391c0588677dcb72a392ab32e8a8d82042308dd79",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 26, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 26: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-26T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6499.653319,
      "volume_total_usd": 8117.397987000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5B09E847CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H0W8FCF670",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0eb47408428857ab24ba4283b897322c8ad1b296e3f22acdccb7bc771576adf5",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 27: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 13124.482011999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 16551.767427,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5C93FF9B1",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZCBRRRMR68",
          "price": 0.23
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLLXJZKGH8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5948abed01b84a1238d7ef5fee35d046705ae6bbfdb200d884ad700f7a7368e9",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 28: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14397.129639999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 16942.610468,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FF688D144",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DT3NHBLVP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa0178e3299f54d7677f5b5f1684ca6b5080271b1df2fcbdce486c04e31545c0d",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 29, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 29: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9837.289014999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 11227.598680999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FF688D144",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N6XKR31FW8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x700a2226f2e9f2e2b18274077bc4bbfd11376169f2888728fae1014e5ed70297",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14833.681666999999,
      "volume_total_usd": 16522.113593,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FF688D144",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RH6C19QBD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb9034d994cfb18013eb909bda972525ee32fe62e7e4d71e5df67d9d55a687727",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7790.026606999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 8401.498902000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0FF688D144",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NPZQJKMWT7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1fc9cdaa309ad10194c6d08f0cb432c5312224a5ff96b5d53db6c2fa50904df3",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus model not be released by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No release by July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.\n\nClaude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Anthropic",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 48,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15561.239752999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 26623.43072,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-26527969A8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next claude opus"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZXTQ05Y8Z7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T20:10:16Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-94S1Z3D7V6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T20:00:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QLLXJZKGH8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T20:00:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DT3NHBLVP0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T20:00:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NPZQJKMWT7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T20:00:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N6XKR31FW8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T19:25:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RH6C19QBD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T19:25:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NT0YG9Q054",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T19:23:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H0W8FCF670",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T19:23:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z36SVRNHV3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-24T06:02:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-25T06:00:42.584Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HJCZS3ZSX1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-23T06:02:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-53TJ3X4FZ7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-22T06:02:12Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FN3114BRF8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-21T06:02:42Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XNJRXDBBQ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-20T06:04:16Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z4VCYJYT44",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-19T06:02:12Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGVS0P62S2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-18T06:35:40Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H4MCPSC634",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-17T07:22:15Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GYMWNQ9P56",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-16T06:21:01Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-1SY2K0TDF3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}