{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
  "slug": "next-claude-opus-text-arena-debut-20260714204425670",
  "question": "The next Claude Opus debut at a score of by December 31, 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1490,
      1500
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1470,
        "prob": 81
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1480,
        "prob": 68
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1490,
        "prob": 57
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1500,
        "prob": 21
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1510,
        "prob": 5
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1520,
        "prob": 3
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "claude",
    "benchmark-performance",
    "llm-capability",
    "anthropic"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the next Claude Opus model debuts on the Arena.ai leaderboard at or above specified Elo score thresholds by December 31, 2026. Six strike levels span 1470 to 1520, forming an implied probability distribution over debut score magnitude. Each market resolves using Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Arena.ai's recorded overall score at 12:00 PM ET the day after debut. Scores are read from the Arena.ai leaderboard, which serves as the authoritative source for resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KZ7THL3D18",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.21,
    "implied_probability": 0.21
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GYGTH2XH57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xccd3b45fe892dce6bb5336d29a7e5f4a8edc56252b34d093b0bf117cdb9c5f41",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1470+: Arena.ai leaderboard records the next Opus model's overall score as of 12:00 PM ET the day after its debut, resolving \"Yes\" if at least 1470 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.81,
      "implied_probability": 0.81,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1138.858998,
      "volume_total_usd": 8194.576959999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1470,
      "question_id": "CMX-46D1E28AF9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "benchmark",
        "claude",
        "claude opus text",
        "opus",
        "text arena"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XKHQRZF3X9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeb1d1626c22c2a7448ac50b00dc120883fcb7edd2fb7255743886fd9bb200ff8",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1480+: Arena.ai leaderboard records the next Opus model's overall score as of 12:00 PM ET the day after its debut, resolving \"Yes\" if at least 1470 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3582.24,
      "volume_total_usd": 4725.275395000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1480,
      "question_id": "CMX-C00E6CAE1D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "benchmark",
        "claude",
        "claude opus text",
        "opus",
        "text arena"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z1T11Z8668",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0cabaf08be1954680599a1cc5d3f715558d8880b6bcb819d2e32ca404c400b35",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1490+: Arena.ai leaderboard records the next Opus model's overall score as of 12:00 PM ET the day after its debut, resolving \"Yes\" if at least 1470 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1559.4811060000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 3920.266845,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1490,
      "question_id": "CMX-9F452C4AFD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "benchmark",
        "claude",
        "claude opus text",
        "opus",
        "text arena"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KZ7THL3D18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x93faa0240e1ad5a847b8d6bfb998c33ab4d520e4e57568f2cbdbedba02d00c7b",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1500+: Arena.ai leaderboard records the next Opus model's overall score as of 12:00 PM ET the day after its debut, resolving \"Yes\" if at least 1470 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1096.617994,
      "volume_total_usd": 5983.303712,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500,
      "question_id": "CMX-F7B5479D72",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "benchmark",
        "claude",
        "claude opus text",
        "opus",
        "text arena"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WQG49CLK57",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf479f3e8d1ee87a98a5ef7a8d0e00f55bd5bc6f52b4c02136f3858ddc0010c7e",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1510+: Arena.ai leaderboard records the next Opus model's overall score as of 12:00 PM ET the day after its debut, resolving \"Yes\" if at least 1470 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.054,
      "implied_probability": 0.054,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3104.96,
      "volume_total_usd": 5119.450693,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1510,
      "question_id": "CMX-89C0864728",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "benchmark",
        "claude",
        "claude opus text",
        "opus",
        "text arena"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-69DV40RK85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfe395db7923c74606153cd29c07c46c2e4421f57983408965937dacf02aa062d",
      "question": "Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1520+: Arena.ai leaderboard records the next Opus model's overall score as of 12:00 PM ET the day after its debut, resolving \"Yes\" if at least 1470 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as \"Opus\" may qualify (e.g., claude-Opus-4.9, claude-Opus-5.0-thinking, claude-Opus-5.1-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.\n\nIf multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.\n\nA qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "arena.ai",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 72,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.031,
      "implied_probability": 0.031,
      "volume_24h_usd": 203.912811,
      "volume_total_usd": 6579.718461999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1520,
      "question_id": "CMX-A04800530C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "benchmark",
        "claude",
        "claude opus text",
        "opus",
        "text arena"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-89W6NSBXH7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}