{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QGSVV8VLR7",
  "slug": "next-croat-president-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina",
  "question": "Will the next President of Bosnia and Herzegovina be a Croat?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "bosnia-and-herzegovina",
    "croatian-politics",
    "2026-elections",
    "presidency"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the Croat seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina's tripartite Presidency following the 2026 general election. Polymarket lists individual named candidates as separate binary contracts, each priced independently against the same outcome. All contracts resolve against Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina certification, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The \"Other\" and placeholder candidate markets absorb probability mass for candidates not yet formally declared.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-T547J81VF5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.38,
    "implied_probability": 0.38
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5Z4VXFFQX9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QGSVV8VLR7",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x0520a29011c556ff376fd6b20660a188cfa87a57cbd6741d8eeb953e07d39b20",
      "question": "Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker P",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Darijana Filipović: The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina will certify the elected Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.4,
      "implied_probability": 0.4,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1454.706828,
      "volume_total_usd": 7908.745648000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "platform_market_id": "0x7f100b8c32a32980883af631bec8dc97753cd3a7349eb1b3e17b34104ecb87c0",
      "question": "Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Slaven Kovačević: The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina will certify the elected Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.38,
      "implied_probability": 0.38,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2101.637367,
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      "tags": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QGSVV8VLR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xac14c71f1ad54bee6fb4cb8374cc0c1f86862444f7f9e62efa769d42ca010be5",
      "question": "Will Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker P",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Zdenko Lučić: The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina will certify the elected Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.036,
      "implied_probability": 0.036,
      "volume_24h_usd": 277.777776,
      "volume_total_usd": 3672.191129,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next croat president"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B88R1MDXC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QGSVV8VLR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4aa8a88be2dc80e5b27824eaf2042e988861be6902316d522862eb8164cefdd6",
      "question": "Will another candidate be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker P",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina will certify the elected Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "next croat president"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SJTLTX7MY1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QGSVV8VLR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb582c2917df7112287efc309c9d311366ecbb54afacd7ad669ed13c07e52e943",
      "question": "Will Candidate A be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker P",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina will certify the elected Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "tags": [
        "next croat president"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R98L5MW1H5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QGSVV8VLR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x31129102b038a177a2dcca2a3ab15f3c41f0b43a429470b02ff15d278552071e",
      "question": "Will Candidate B be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker P",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina will certify the elected Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next croat president"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WRJRRDJG93",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QGSVV8VLR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd671aa59f9736a22df7aab5650f62f34c62200b198b0ee56915ac7ed2f5cd325",
      "question": "Will Candidate C be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
      "description": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker P",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate C: The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina will certify the elected Croat member of the Presidency following the October 4, 2026 general election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "source_citation": null,
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        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "question": "Will Candidate W be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?",
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        "rules_raw": "The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. \n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Croat member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.\n\nInterim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.\n\nIf no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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      "tags": [
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