{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
  "slug": "next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt",
  "question": "Will a next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "google",
    "gemini",
    "large-language-models"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Google releases its next Gemini Pro model by successive weekly deadlines spanning June through August 2026. All 16 markets are structured identically as binary yes/no questions priced on Polymarket, with strike dates ranging from June 5 to August 31, 2026. Together they form an implied probability curve for release timing. Resolution across all markets uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with Google's own product announcements serving as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YTDMMCVC91",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.063,
    "implied_probability": 0.063
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XC28DK4PV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4c94f8a6f7af58636295e3c3bbc5318e886abc29ced078fc72aea2e1166584a2",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 5: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-06T20:38:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2462.237564,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A50A8CC1E4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D1SLT78YG8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x01e653fd5413472e714d1415b153685e9dcc2eb88c9292c1ccd5befb1e3524c8",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 12: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-15T22:36:27Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 16537.440401,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-146ADF4C17",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92DY13WBT8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x29615691f1cd58a76040e86f1bd432b798ceaa31d3139011efdbd66f017efa01",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 19: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-20T06:19:01Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 13679.391966000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4202266867",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4LGTHCSR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x253108d1876c9d55c1d7a7cfd4490245a7fc050da30a0395ca2fa380f76050f4",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 26: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T06:06:05Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 19665.970552000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6A5C60F3FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LTQC6C57Q7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7a6622789c3003de9202d6840c420ea7a85896b8c291792a03496b71c4a37261",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T11:17:52Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 57277.34937799997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D040DF3573",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YTDMMCVC91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe105fe12d6846691be333319de4ea7ea5f354d051810edd25ad88b23f79e9c7b",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.063,
      "implied_probability": 0.063,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1228.23603,
      "volume_total_usd": 79102.817245,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C47F118AC7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HFZH7Q5SV7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa59aa5dae2fb4c5bcf38d04599e424e6ae1b43a2b40dab577096ced369d503f5",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 3, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 3: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-03T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T06:02:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3619.515262,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A5E2BF8FAD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5S6GTRQN10",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x18f294673189c11189c3c0657a4e81dd44e9c4547a3e8b601681d8c2a749ab8c",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 10, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 10: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-10T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T06:01:41Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 18235.748351000017,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6E8B92D340",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YT6T35TJN4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6aa0fc17587cadbfdefe223969839636558eb9b880b3b8d011f77a89f54d4e65",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 17, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-18T06:02:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 18483.680724000013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-645DA4923B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TGDV72LY69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a4370fb819515ce9ccadbd2b4dae7324c65745e4d678b740fbcac629930f6b6",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 24: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": 5.8401,
      "volume_total_usd": 17669.141361000013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-845C69D7A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SRKMW9LV69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x432147a2aee14133df99b983ed5d956afe821d1895b6a0b4dd50d05dfc43d61d",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 27, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 27: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-27T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-27T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 448.82536600000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9B2B57A24A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8211PCSR34",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1bdb3590d124957e0ab07448f6f4f9fb1707b5a5c40e405684761151fd014d98",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 28, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 28: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-28T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-28T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2048.2092279999997,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0CA66270A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HKJWP8RB18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6dc21e98010e50c786659945ae6a22f22ad852873972a8a4b776dab3902430ab",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 29, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 29: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-29T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-29T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1325.6842519999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D0CA66270A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5VDBF3R1V9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x41a6591e0fac364bfd9f1fd79023b3f5fc9bba4085ae945377620bf7db5d4adb",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.02,
      "implied_probability": 0.02,
      "volume_24h_usd": 232.31557700000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 6351.423043,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C47F118AC7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NGS8R77261",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x61a5b075efdefbcbf563c65111907534c667a6905944ae2f5bafe72380da4a64",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 7: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-07T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-07T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1283.34814,
      "volume_total_usd": 5509.952843000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FE1242654C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-297LKLXCQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbf1aa15d0707bc6425a3d9a392910870904464188d56fee0ddce49418413db9e",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from Google",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "official information from Google",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 68,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.346466,
      "volume_total_usd": 1890.0959440000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6975B3321E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "gemini",
        "google",
        "google gemini pro",
        "model"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YT6T35TJN4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-18T06:02:12Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5S6GTRQN10",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-11T06:01:41Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HFZH7Q5SV7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-04T06:02:07Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LTQC6C57Q7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T11:17:52Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4LGTHCSR8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T06:06:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-92DY13WBT8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-20T06:19:01Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D1SLT78YG8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-15T22:36:27Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XC28DK4PV9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-06T20:38:01Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}