{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
  "slug": "next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt",
  "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "google",
    "gemini",
    "large-language-models",
    "tech-2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the release date of Google's next Gemini Pro model, with resolution by June 30, 2026. Polymarket structures the event as approximately 30 discrete daily binary contracts, each asking whether release occurs on a specific date. Each contract resolves independently via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. A key caveat is that the definition of a qualifying Gemini Pro release rests with the UMA protocol Polymarket uses for resolution, leaving definitional ambiguity if Google stages a soft launch or limited rollout.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7PVGMQ3Q82",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.003
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7T5X7W7K25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe6399e51901476e5bafdc2aaecbb5426231a8db5181839e8ab34268e1008c964",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 26: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-6A5C60F3FF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1ZKJMGN6J9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1bed3f7cfc2b6bfba130c9267ccebe80a551eec36628371555109fac13dd73d1",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 13: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "question_id": "CMX-C2A7D5CACE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KX8QBDXSC0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x229263ccd4a5d9550584284ef55e3e008cadace7785658c50d6657267929662d",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 23: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3836.531954000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7F649F294A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next google gemini"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DR4YHNSDK6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xed7311f39d0aa1d696ae40e1dac1ef06b6b6837479cacdf15e6840ad7ae65b3a",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 24: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 100,
      "volume_total_usd": 2726.582114,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FA7EC0AB00",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GGYK6H7M12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x42daab0ff8c2d48cb6cf86d3e7c401d3e6acbbfcab7f98af19bce085b4a1b18b",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to June 2, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "On or prior to June 2: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-04T18:42:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "caps": [
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      "volume_total_usd": 646.03,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-8C1D77FEEF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D61WTB5K69",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x99c6c58d89492a47c11b10fe5e66884cf985de5dc077d14fe2a6e51a1598e5cb",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 8, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 8: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-09T06:07:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-AF4C32A5B8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DXY65CYHP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RVJ0PPQ188",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x323e4ceb891b29bf97a9c96487d6c13ffa4d8d280b834b95c2df345cd43d9161",
      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 10, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling w",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 10: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T06:06:46Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.\n\nAny Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as \"Pro\" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.\n\nProducts labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.\n\nA qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-08T06:05:18Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-10T06:06:18Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 11: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "question": "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 17, 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T16:00:00Z",
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