{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-R22FHX5BR1",
  "slug": "next-leader-of-germanys-union-cducsu-20260718204733993",
  "question": "Will Friedrich Merz become the next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "germany",
    "cdu-csu",
    "party-leadership",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which politician will be formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group. Polymarket structures the event as named-candidate binary contracts, each resolving via the UMA Optimistic Oracle Polymarket uses for resolution. All contracts close December 31, 2026, with an \"Other\" leg capturing unlisted candidates. The authoritative outcome is the first formal election result by the Bundestag parliamentary group itself.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HDV7CQVDS5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.968
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R22FHX5BR1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xa2435331e93fc07363940be332ecc54042da8d8d4c7dc96a785c6769e1ad5d8f",
      "question": "Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Thorsten Frei: The first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following the July 2026 resignation resolves this market, per official CDU/CSU announcement by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Carsten Linnemann be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R22FHX5BR1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd6c323434624eb0e8b1e040d65c1144cd83ae45fcdf4ed2ea868ce56c0dc7d64",
      "question": "Will Günter Krings be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?",
      "description": "On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its nex",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Günter Krings: The first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following the July 2026 resignation resolves this market, per official CDU/CSU announcement by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. \n\nNominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.\n\nIf the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xeba0d6af5db8bac34cef74456d66f4e1fdc60e7c35b55af7ab04a8380219b2a0",
      "question": "Will Alexander Dobrindt be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?",
      "description": "On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its nex",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Nina Warken be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?",
      "description": "On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its nex",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Nina Warken: The first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following the July 2026 resignation resolves this market, per official CDU/CSU announcement by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. \n\nNominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.\n\nIf the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xb60c3d72adb075d2aac77937b6c7c80411e7137ebf62e71e8b5b448ec52c78fe",
      "question": "Will Michael Brand be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?",
      "description": "On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its nex",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "Michael Brand: The first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following the July 2026 resignation resolves this market, per official CDU/CSU announcement by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).\n\nThis market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.\n\nThe resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. \n\nNominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.\n\nIf the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.",
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