{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
  "slug": "next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro-20260630194619406",
  "question": "Will the next leader to leave office before 2027 be someone other than Starmer or Petro?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "leader-removal",
    "2026",
    "executive-power",
    "global-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track which named world leader will be the first to permanently depart their listed office before December 31, 2026. Each market is a binary contract on one specific leader, resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle upon confirmed official departure. The markets are mutually exclusive in structure: at most one leader can be the \"next\" out. Resolution requires official government confirmation of permanent departure, not temporary absence.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GD5MZCJVD5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.34,
    "implied_probability": 0.34
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-42HCMKQGY3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa269db945d01305fc42b3bfa3e01e95ee17619a5e490e26236d969401c79e2ec",
      "question": "Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Macron - France President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.038,
      "implied_probability": 0.038,
      "volume_24h_usd": 212.209229,
      "volume_total_usd": 1972.9874300000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-G27722G862",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbea2bc8100eff35242663564c967af9444681f75a3c16f6223d5fb48bef567fe",
      "question": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Erdoğan - Türkiye President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.008,
      "implied_probability": 0.008,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2724.024831,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-T2YGTWZ8M9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc41ec7ef46aeaf92c52a0e47fdaae094064d58efb9c5e3c73694d282bdb0ef6b",
      "question": "Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1731.378115,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V7116Q6DR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa97ab95c88a44476af89bdfe180676c6e014c25c45022f91356261dbc08ed6d6",
      "question": "Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Xi - General Secretary of the CCP: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
      "volume_24h_usd": 114.15,
      "volume_total_usd": 1768.423066,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4M4K0JRGL5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x780fb498b1f10fe785545ab25b2129398fe8fca4fac25471f37884d02264fc09",
      "question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Netanyahu - Israel PM: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 46.55,
      "volume_total_usd": 6542.616237,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S3PFG9PFZ8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9f0323ed0b198e73a4eeec1822d0eae097941ddad3d7f796937b8e6e004b3d11",
      "question": "Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Albanese - Australia PM: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": 378.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 1786.7912649999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BZN5KGP0S1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7947bc114b6a3b869470b02cd50bfa717c1411b57fd060071dd168787304f114",
      "question": "Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Newsom - California Governor: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.003,
      "implied_probability": 0.003,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1314.0174519999998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4DCVRQMB74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x139b8911f111f845384ee15d68afc49a956da1fc4a3d7ee591f6f64a1f53660f",
      "question": "Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Milei - Argentina President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.007,
      "implied_probability": 0.007,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QSQ4XZP281",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc3d229efc876fce37afbaf3e467b50ab64a4747ea8c5224bc7cf7e8acf465ffc",
      "question": "Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Trump - USA President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.064,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-00ZPS5W9Y5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf32503b14fe232043d9db63ae787db13ddbc8374f4d1d016fd7d90d68e87147",
      "question": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Zelenskyy - Ukraine President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.023,
      "implied_probability": 0.023,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3028.3779310000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XN44BSV927",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x21724762698f7be4a65bd5b076782cd4b27c7762516fecf88ccc0b4430492411",
      "question": "Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Putin - Russia President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.101,
      "implied_probability": 0.101,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3031.2636410000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SPSP5NSG70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0716a90a7a2e642eb65255c22187174165da4518ad3811c543df3eabcd08c9dc",
      "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lula da Silva - Brazil President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.093,
      "implied_probability": 0.093,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RD3P2Z39L1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9dadfa633cab5b1f3b7711a47d16c9e352dc57654e1b746067bae3f82214435b",
      "question": "Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Lecornu - France PM: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
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      "volume_24h_usd": 5.48,
      "volume_total_usd": 3537.79269,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QRQYQP99V3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe727d8f1cac667930c9b7cc9b443a079ff3cfac47de4933957ba741282763cf0",
      "question": "Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Takaichi - Japan PM: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 49,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.015,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
        "next leader out"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M74W2T78P0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-B8XVR4ZBD1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x87b4fab9ba12e7ac29735b5fe63b9398a95d4e46185c55a3a52433bffae9cee7",
      "question": "Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Abbas - President of Palestine: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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    {
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      "platform_market_id": "0x24054faa76513d7d4c87d0f7d9fe8336317da6406d05aea6e623f3aed9dd0c6c",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "question": "Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?",
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      "question": "Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x31ae3eec28ab6568bcc3d610f3857b4a3040b5842d57127e041bfee3cb54fc29",
      "question": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabri",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "al-Sharaa - Syria President: The first named leader's permanent departure from listed office, confirmed by official government sources or credible international news agencies, resolves by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3b5a8f61120f2fb2a808f117b950d7c37ad3ee0953464ba69927c31d24cde918",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
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