{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TLS774GFL0",
  "slug": "next-mythos-class-model-released-by",
  "question": "Will a new Mythos-Class Model be released by next year?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-model-release",
    "claude",
    "anthropic",
    "large-language-models",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Anthropic releases a next Mythos-class Claude model by three sequential deadlines: July 31, August 31, and September 30, 2026. The three Polymarket contracts are structured as cascading binary strikes on the same release event. An earlier resolution implies all later dates also resolve YES; a miss at each deadline shifts probability forward. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BPNKPKB051",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BPNKPKB051",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TLS774GFL0",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xfa2c8ee4088a2614d0dd691d5579e01fe0dbe0f5ecc2cb2b20e49750aff11990",
      "question": "Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T06:04:02Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however,  a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 42073.719213,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-872CB8A900",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-5ZRW7YMXS2",
          "price": 0.01
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      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "model",
        "mythic",
        "mythos class model",
        "release"
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KCXXRFYD67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TLS774GFL0",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xd26d0f02ed27aa7c67dac9d9f0e66ec891f71f2ef6697f172f6ae1e43813b184",
      "question": "Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however,  a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 52,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": 823.85,
      "volume_total_usd": 19814.567213,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A8942C888D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
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        "mythic",
        "mythos class model",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BTD0NP04X0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TLS774GFL0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0ca328688c590d82b80ec763d0a34353b9b9bd56dd2016243909c038c91d2615",
      "question": "Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rol",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
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        "rules_raw": "On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nAny model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.\n\nIf a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however,  a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "score": 52,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
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      "question_id": "CMX-AC5C87A944",
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          "market_id": "CM-MKT-XL7F8T2MF3",
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      "tags": [
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        "mythic",
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        "release"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BTD0NP04X0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-01T20:19:06Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-TLS774GFL0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}