{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5Q4MF89VS0",
  "slug": "next-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260623022722982",
  "question": "Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks occur by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "us-iran-diplomacy",
    "trump",
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether a formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by sequential deadline dates spanning June 26 through August 31, 2026. Each binary contract is a distinct tenor on the same underlying event, functioning collectively as a term structure of diplomatic probability. Later-dated contracts are structurally inclusive of earlier ones, so prices should monotonically increase with deadline extension. Resolution across all contracts is determined by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TMYHXKXXD1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.001
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D79XZRHTY8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5Q4MF89VS0",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x1dbce4c7cbafaa96756be21a1c2eae4c500b1e4306b623ac2646832e3c760a3b",
      "question": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026?",
      "description": "On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person dipl",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 26: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-26T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-27T06:59:05Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x545e1bf6ec42e0e8a776a3c3e11ed225f8d3dfcc74f98656e142f99a2b718383",
      "question": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-03T23:59:00Z",
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        "source": null,
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0JV5QPRV87",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5Q4MF89VS0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x79c850d5dd022d89aaf4f92105657d7a2e0518d4e4d4cf6cdce44d385fe029a7",
      "question": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?",
      "description": "On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person dipl",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 10: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-10T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-11T06:02:50Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.\n\nIndirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.\n\nFollow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xb838caec0354e09985f2c228c54ba190cb284f390beda5ffd58d163ba00648ec",
      "question": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D080VHFR63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5Q4MF89VS0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x325d2f917428a0d39ac7563770ec519208666b8c926091de1a1934d8570b64cd",
      "question": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?",
      "description": "On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person dipl",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "July 17: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-17T23:59:00Z",
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        "us",
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      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BD8NB9J184",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5Q4MF89VS0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbdc0827c873d1c3c538e549ab94c77829f7e40fd3376b25164c0279f744a87bc",
      "question": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person dipl",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). \n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.\n\nIndirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.\n\nFollow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "name": "aljazeera.com",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.39,
      "implied_probability": 0.39,
      "volume_24h_usd": 9072.411342000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 165797.18382799998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "us",
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      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D080VHFR63",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-18T06:05:48.713194Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0JV5QPRV87",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-07-11T06:02:50Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
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      "resolved_at": "2026-07-06T02:34:22Z",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D79XZRHTY8",
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      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-27T06:59:05Z",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-5Q4MF89VS0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}