{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
  "slug": "nigerian-presidential-election-winner-20260602162945585",
  "question": "Will the Nigerian presidential election be won by a candidate from the ruling party by 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "nigeria",
    "presidential-election",
    "2027",
    "africa"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. Each binary contract prices one candidate's probability of winning. The 22 markets are mutually exclusive; implied probabilities across named candidates and placeholders should sum to approximately one. Resolution relies on official results certified by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GKLXCH6GG7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.62,
    "implied_probability": 0.62
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4KTVX34QB9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xafccc7843149d16689ccc5fefe9c671675ea4d412b18788d0f1b28a3c24c42d2",
      "question": "Will Rotimi Amaechi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Rotimi Amaechi: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official results for the Nigerian presidential election held January 16, 2027 determine the winner, with final resolution by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "inecnigeria.org",
            "url": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.017,
      "implied_probability": 0.017,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4400.442172000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nigerian presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RVWLYW8X62",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbfa376c15623eadf6a95441c866495e6dfd06642d6626df7ce09c5cf285ef77a",
      "question": "Will Rabiu Kwankwaso win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Rabiu Kwankwaso: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official results for the Nigerian presidential election held January 16, 2027 determine the winner, with final resolution by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "inecnigeria.org",
            "url": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.01,
      "implied_probability": 0.01,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4036.8684560000015,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nigerian presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2C0NRM9Y92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe00cb03a0aefe8f4a06338da171a8df62edd2056622843931f4d5af4199afffe",
      "question": "Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Peter Obi: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official results for the Nigerian presidential election held January 16, 2027 determine the winner, with final resolution by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "inecnigeria.org",
            "url": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 17773.338653000006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nigerian presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GKLXCH6GG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdb66349b5658e7ce54667294bb61ca2f98d68f8afde5c711284d7e9c5a5e5787",
      "question": "Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Bola Tinubu: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official results for the Nigerian presidential election held January 16, 2027 determine the winner, with final resolution by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "inecnigeria.org",
            "url": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.62,
      "implied_probability": 0.62,
      "volume_24h_usd": 63.45825200000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 40329.64940899994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nigerian presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WPLTL0VCD8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc6681b1152ebf921ca7283fed32e2263e0ac88df91231d68331b67cffe88759b",
      "question": "Will Omoyele Sowore win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Omoyele Sowore: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official results for the Nigerian presidential election held January 16, 2027 determine the winner, with final resolution by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "inecnigeria.org",
            "url": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.004,
      "implied_probability": 0.004,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 5872.127568,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nigerian presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HLCM5M5T63",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x16dea458809007a4fcfa19a800c868b39138cddde68f2c4c46fdd7bf32bab70a",
      "question": "Will Candidate A win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate A: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official results for the Nigerian presidential election held January 16, 2027 determine the winner, with final resolution by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "inecnigeria.org",
            "url": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nigerian presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FQY7ZNW7C6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x335baabd58f0324accaf427ce71d605caf29f340ecf6b81f16e460c19290d3ec",
      "question": "Will Candidate B win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Candidate B: The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) official results for the Nigerian presidential election held January 16, 2027 determine the winner, with final resolution by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-16T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. \n\nIf the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "inecnigeria.org",
            "url": "https://www.inecnigeria.org/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Independent National Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 42,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "nigerian presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MVT08ZKBK2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-T1VFXY6R78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe25ebe30c9657b154525d29ee77e533492170b0bb59cba23a9505c82f4a46fad",
      "question": "Will Candidate C win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?",
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