{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SQSTL62BJ7",
  "slug": "nothing-ever-happens-2026",
  "question": "Will nothing ever happen by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "2026",
    "status-quo",
    "global-stability",
    "annual-event"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any specified high-impact geopolitical event occurs in calendar year 2026. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, drawing on public news sources and official government announcements. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. The binary framing creates meaningful ambiguity around which events qualify as \"specified.\"",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y957KRHFL6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.82,
    "implied_probability": 0.82,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y957KRHFL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SQSTL62BJ7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa090ae1a88ca96bcae7523a65a96425ed53616709be75cb69a0df144f718931e",
      "question": "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "A combination of public news sources and official government announcements determines whether any of the specified events occurred by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:\n\n- Trump out as President\n- China invades Taiwan\n- Xi Jinping out\n- U.S. invades Iran\n- Iranian regime falls\n- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’\n- Jeffrey Epstein alive\n- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate\n- Russia invades a NATO country\n- Trump acquires Greenland\n- 9.0 or above earthquake\n- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)\n- Major meteor strike (250kt+)\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here: \nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 20,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.82,
      "implied_probability": 0.82,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 507.520759,
      "volume_total_usd": 773879.0988139992,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitical",
        "macro",
        "occurrence",
        "significant global events"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SQSTL62BJ7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}