{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HLF19V2Q73",
  "slug": "nothing-ever-happens-july-20260626174334834",
  "question": "Will nothing notable happen in July?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "monthly-event",
    "2026",
    "nothing-ever-happens",
    "political-stability",
    "crisis-absence"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any of six specified geopolitical events occur by July 31, 2026. Polymarket structures it as a binary outcome, resolving NO if nothing happens and YES if any qualifying event triggers. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against a defined event checklist. The six-event threshold makes resolution criteria specific but dependent on exact definitional scope.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KT9GND1XZ6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.71,
    "implied_probability": 0.71
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KT9GND1XZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HLF19V2Q73",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6ed26c0fdc5a82bf0a70104a3bc2892692aa0ff2958ac1442e975353b59c4219",
      "question": "Nothing Ever Happens: July",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and July\n31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- USA or any African Country wins the World Cup\n- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal\n- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile\n- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150\n- Fed decides any change in July\n- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_July.pdf",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether any of six specified events occur by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET: USA or African nation World Cup win, US-Iran nuclear deal, Iran uranium surrender, WTI crude above $150, Fed rate change, or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and July\n31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- USA or any African Country wins the World Cup\n- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal\n- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile\n- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150\n- Fed decides any change in July\n- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.\n\nThe full rules for this market can be found here:\nhttps://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_July.pdf",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_July.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com",
            "url": "upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_July.pdf",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_July.pdf",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 31,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.71,
      "implied_probability": 0.71,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3032.6311410000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 59575.85308,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "events",
        "july",
        "significant events july"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HLF19V2Q73",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}