{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-24JSNTN2D5",
  "slug": "nothing-ever-happens-satoshi-nakamoto",
  "question": "Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be publicly revealed by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "pop-culture",
    "identity-mystery",
    "bitcoin-founder",
    "2026",
    "never-happens"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any onchain outflow or swap occurs from the wallet entity labeled Satoshi Nakamoto, per Arkham Intel Explorer records. It resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle at end of 2026. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies. Arkham Intelligence serves as the authoritative data source for wallet attribution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J8X3MZLJ97",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.967,
    "implied_probability": 0.967
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J8X3MZLJ97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-24JSNTN2D5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb00e791c299299858a0e333a31b841f51038e6f14321f25eba03c41a5b6f58f7",
      "question": "Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin\n- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.\n\n1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin\n\nThis market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the ent",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Arkham's Intel Explorer records of outflows or swaps from the wallet entity labeled Satoshi Nakamoto between market creation and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:\n\n- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin\n- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.\n\n1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin\n\nThis market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto\n\nIf Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.\n\n2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Something\" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame.\n\nQualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.\n\nIf Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify.\n\nUnverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "intel.arkm.com",
            "url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.967,
      "implied_probability": 0.967,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13695.924651000001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2B5074257F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "cryptocurrency",
        "identity",
        "satoshi",
        "satoshi nakamoto identity"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-24JSNTN2D5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}