{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2QCKJ1C06",
  "slug": "number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-august-2026-1785517679415",
  "question": "Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "north-korea",
    "military-tests",
    "2026",
    "asia-pacific",
    "quantified-metric"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track North Korea ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missile test launches during August 2026. Polymarket structures the event as four discrete count tiers: zero, one, two, or three-plus launches. Together the tiers form a complete probability distribution over launch frequency. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using Pyongyang Time as the operative calendar.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JNQHFWNPQ6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JNQHFWNPQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2QCKJ1C06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xce9f5feeb98c1e0872e46f9a1e0d3fe8bd5144edb545ceaf2359c822f64f930e",
      "question": "Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<1: North Korea's ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missile test launches during August 2026 (Pyongyang Time) per UMA Optimistic Oracle, resolving August 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 15370.221737,
      "volume_total_usd": 16649.90054,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "missiles",
        "north korea missile",
        "north-korea"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M17QZG5840",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2QCKJ1C06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc6ad70c2c1662c73ce85379401de80df0d5eab491ff89f1500ee3bbaa96a2f92",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1: North Korea's ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missile test launches during August 2026 (Pyongyang Time) per UMA Optimistic Oracle, resolving August 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.46,
      "implied_probability": 0.46,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.173912,
      "volume_total_usd": 2874.719625,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "missiles",
        "north korea missile",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DMPBC13ZB7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2QCKJ1C06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x409a30862b620e2602020bba5ea721e522da16fcf5f6d0e061597c6934c317af",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2: North Korea's ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missile test launches during August 2026 (Pyongyang Time) per UMA Optimistic Oracle, resolving August 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.35,
      "implied_probability": 0.35,
      "volume_24h_usd": 68.585713,
      "volume_total_usd": 3783.9996100000008,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "missiles",
        "north korea missile",
        "north-korea"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6JD8NFGXJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V2QCKJ1C06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x539b709b8c7fde18113697ffb67fe6164391e94d13e6734331ccb1ee0d3c4c4e",
      "question": "Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3+: North Korea's ballistic, cruise, and anti-ship missile test launches during August 2026 (Pyongyang Time) per UMA Optimistic Oracle, resolving August 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 7843.01,
      "volume_total_usd": 9053.639908000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "military",
        "missiles",
        "north korea missile",
        "north-korea"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V2QCKJ1C06",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}