{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MZFYFG715",
  "slug": "number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-july-2026-20260626154530205",
  "question": "Will North Korea conduct missile tests in July 2026, and if so, how many?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "north-korea",
    "military-activity",
    "missile-tests",
    "2026",
    "asia-pacific"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the number of calendar days North Korea conducts qualifying ballistic or cruise missile test launches in July 2026. Four discrete outcome tiers span the full distribution: fewer than one, exactly one, exactly two, and three or more test days. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The resolve timestamp of July 5, 2026 precedes month-end, creating a resolution caveat for tests occurring after that date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7KZ2Q9QNF2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.2,
    "implied_probability": 0.2
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MZFYFG715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x833480ae62a2f4417773cd96a143584fe3ae4af5341a5ae517dd457062b39621",
      "question": "Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<1: The number of calendar days North Korea conducts qualifying ballistic or cruise missile test launches in July 2026 resolves per UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment of publicly available reporting, deadline July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-05T08:25:19Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": null,
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8330.935210000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "missiles",
        "north korea",
        "north korea missile",
        "weapons"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7KZ2Q9QNF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MZFYFG715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xba3d9364a13bd1463c7926a4aeb82052cd0f4fe288557ff5f7dd9fc13f9678b5",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1: The number of calendar days North Korea conducts qualifying ballistic or cruise missile test launches in July 2026 resolves per UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment of publicly available reporting, deadline July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": 290.61999999999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 8618.528825000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 1,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SKW7G63TG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MZFYFG715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb0ca123c37d679b4a1aba26d13edda1c64ad30270c11ea7dbb059a3b27b610e0",
      "question": "Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "2: The number of calendar days North Korea conducts qualifying ballistic or cruise missile test launches in July 2026 resolves per UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment of publicly available reporting, deadline July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.298846,
      "volume_total_usd": 4167.788847000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "missiles",
        "north korea",
        "north korea missile",
        "weapons"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8ML3RKCKZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9MZFYFG715",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd4ae25271eaa57ff901f455a99815346aa8b7d65bc8ff075a656d3e516f391d7",
      "question": "Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in July 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3+: The number of calendar days North Korea conducts qualifying ballistic or cruise missile test launches in July 2026 resolves per UMA Optimistic Oracle assessment of publicly available reporting, deadline July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.\n\nIf a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.\n\nOnly test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.\n\nTest launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.\n\nResolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0.051,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 123.634833,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "missiles",
        "north korea",
        "north korea missile",
        "weapons"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6TVKFNYT34",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-05T08:25:19Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9MZFYFG715",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}