{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
  "slug": "nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory",
  "question": "Will the winning party in the New Zealand election receive more than 5 percentage points margin of victory in the popular vote?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "new-zealand",
    "2026",
    "popular-vote",
    "margin-of-victory"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the popular vote margin of victory in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election, resolving November 7, 2026. All nine contracts are on Polymarket, structured as discrete margin-of-victory bands by winning party. The Electoral Commission of New Zealand is the authoritative source for vote share data. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-LYT0LWHB24",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.14,
    "implied_probability": 0.14
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WGMVNVY4P6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa634560f658b7b7ca3a6f86893441f2cb2608189cb589e38f570daf67a8d9de0",
      "question": "Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 15% or more?",
      "description": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Labour 15%+: The Electoral Commission of New Zealand reports the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two parties' party list votes by November 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://elections.nz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "elections.nz",
            "url": "https://elections.nz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 498.90179,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 15,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labour",
        "labour party popular",
        "nz-election-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6BVWSLH5Y0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x83822c3e212385a9496acbcd213b7bd5e88510948267d6c5512f8259a808b3fc",
      "question": "Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10-15%?",
      "description": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Labour 10-15%: The Electoral Commission of New Zealand reports the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two parties' party list votes by November 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://elections.nz/",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "elections.nz",
            "url": "https://elections.nz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 92,
      "volume_total_usd": 3814.4504070000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "labour",
        "labour party popular",
        "nz-election-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QKBLLLTW38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x55ae051221cdc3d0ca7e075372cf0b52aa72f6a77a80465e728adc1a15c26021",
      "question": "Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 5-10%?",
      "description": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Labour 5-10%: The Electoral Commission of New Zealand reports the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two parties' party list votes by November 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://elections.nz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "elections.nz",
            "url": "https://elections.nz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 103.68,
      "volume_total_usd": 643.6184480000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "labour",
        "labour party popular",
        "nz-election-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTSL89DQT1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3178e675218fc6c9d35884a6f9d54d69348e35875b096054afa8d33e174469d3",
      "question": "Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?",
      "description": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Labour 0-5%: The Electoral Commission of New Zealand reports the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two parties' party list votes by November 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://elections.nz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "elections.nz",
            "url": "https://elections.nz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.32,
      "implied_probability": 0.32,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12.42,
      "volume_total_usd": 1321.3737310000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "labour",
        "labour party popular",
        "nz-election-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L838X26H97",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x542f0066fe04f19616650236308b0e68cd1ac666e96b950ce9a0f8e06488b36d",
      "question": "Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?",
      "description": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National 0-5%: The Electoral Commission of New Zealand reports the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two parties' party list votes by November 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://elections.nz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "elections.nz",
            "url": "https://elections.nz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2091.8616739999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "national",
        "national party popular",
        "nz-election-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QR4RJ1BBP0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ed3b8bfd744e6e87c601e78ce5dfe34fc6bb56a14156c2b4314d122a90a3c1e",
      "question": "Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 5-10%?",
      "description": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "National 5-10%: The Electoral Commission of New Zealand reports the absolute percentage-point margin between the top two parties' party list votes by November 7, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-11-07T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://elections.nz/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "elections.nz",
            "url": "https://elections.nz/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.038,
      "implied_probability": 0.038,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 690.7238159999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "national",
        "national party popular",
        "nz-election-2026"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LYT0LWHB24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y45BTB3VQ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1217ae7f4f68cf61ce2b80a8aba64418918660e674029da95a09f1e6e99b9517",
      "question": "Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10% or more?",
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        "rules_raw": "A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.\n\nThe “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.\n\nThis market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.\n\nIf two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.\n\nIf the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.\n\nThis market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.",
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