{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
  "slug": "o1-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch",
  "question": "Will o1's FDV be above ___ one day after launch?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "valuation-metrics",
    "o1-ai",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the fully diluted valuation of the o1 token one day after its launch. FDV is calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price. Seven binary strike thresholds span $100M to $1B, forming an implied probability curve across valuation levels. All seven markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle and close January 2028.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BGY53YBH83",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BGY53YBH83",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd638c61e552201ba3badd247a361aaa4a3440f15403483bff1e68eb0d6cdc7e3",
      "question": "o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$100M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 89.25,
      "volume_total_usd": 93552.05632500007,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 100000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-8CC8328C25",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "o1",
        "o1 fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-98G7RS03T3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf000e6e58568fc7670e15d1baa7dabe7052b52886472e7825330a908beea1de2",
      "question": "o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$300M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 46.72,
      "volume_total_usd": 862.7400000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 300000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E31F4365F3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "o1",
        "o1 fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZKC1XTB1L1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x00168497e9fb3e59718b7bbe884ac9fd31ed3376b0e6f17fc04f4714d4e91210",
      "question": "o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$500M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 113.69226,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 500000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-26E40E6F77",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "o1",
        "o1 fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2P411L48J5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeeb63b6f2661223796e73f7a2d50d25c9a37de7d120e37ba1a299312b22adfea",
      "question": "o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1B: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1151.0223799999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-403BB62C21",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "o1",
        "o1 fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZS1WVTM0C3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf3400bee676ed90a83bff9b6bfa88bcf0abca0048792f047726146a7fd3611e2",
      "question": "o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$200M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 12240.407100999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 200000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-473983EDE3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "o1",
        "o1 fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6G97FWXD40",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfb9a43b24982147467eabb56395807fa3c4e497a20d03867f6b5eb023abed8aa",
      "question": "o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$400M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 155.35782,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 400000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-A7FF0765D6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fdv",
        "launch",
        "o1",
        "o1 fdv"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DD12L01BZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-QWZZ0YHSP8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1d0f4f9e01bad72b480170ba756d29fabaa7011fccf1854076e6ebdc7e14be0f",
      "question": "o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a t",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$700M: The named token's fully diluted valuation, calculated as total supply multiplied by the most liquid available price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public launch, resolves on January 1, 2028.",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n\"1 day after launch\" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/o1_exchange",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
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