{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9JWZ6QTQ07",
  "slug": "opec-crude-oil-production-above-in-may",
  "question": "Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "energy-markets",
    "opec",
    "commodity-forecasting",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track OPEC crude oil production in May 2026 against four discrete thresholds: 18, 19, 20, and 21 million barrels per day. All four are binary strikes on the same underlying print, forming an implicit probability distribution across production levels. The authoritative source is OPEC's June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, Table 5-7, resolving June 11, 2026 via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. No cross-platform structural contrast applies here; all four markets share identical binary mechanics across a single platform.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-81TZH2GYG8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-32DHZDVXL6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9JWZ6QTQ07",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x30f13260d928abdd1e19f35ae4c8fed8a9f1000951f03b92da78af4a23acc64e",
      "question": "Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in May?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market R",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OPEC publishes May 2026 crude oil production in Table 5-7 of its June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, released June 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. \n\nCrude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.\n\nIf the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. \n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "opec.org",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2301.74277,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 18,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "opec",
        "opec crude oil",
        "production"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6VN4YMD9Y4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9JWZ6QTQ07",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc869e9bd1314e562f6dd82d86e8a62b696b086c9e2a24ad4a0369af2f042b0eb",
      "question": "Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market R",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OPEC publishes May 2026 crude oil production in Table 5-7 of its June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, released June 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. \n\nCrude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.\n\nIf the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. \n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "opec.org",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2270.0411990000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 19,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "opec",
        "opec crude oil",
        "production"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NDYS5NG677",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9JWZ6QTQ07",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc5c70d62dbb5116664e9b86bb4574c7d1b3a5307005dae542d305cae7c480e18",
      "question": "Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in May?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market R",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OPEC publishes May 2026 crude oil production in Table 5-7 of its June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, released June 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. \n\nCrude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.\n\nIf the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. \n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "opec.org",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3117.379294,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "opec",
        "opec crude oil",
        "production"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-81TZH2GYG8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9JWZ6QTQ07",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x692c561e78efb0f0e78d5c6936bce15e48bb09d19e53ee8f45d938be200e91b6",
      "question": "Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in May?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market R",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OPEC publishes May 2026 crude oil production in Table 5-7 of its June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, released June 11, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026\n\nThe relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. \n\nCrude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered.\n\nIf the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. \n\nNote: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "opec.org",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html",
        "sources": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 81,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3378.502707,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 21,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crude oil",
        "energy",
        "opec",
        "opec crude oil",
        "production"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-32DHZDVXL6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NDYS5NG677",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-81TZH2GYG8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-11T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-9JWZ6QTQ07",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}