{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y3NCFFKPY6",
  "slug": "opec-dissolves-in-2026",
  "question": "Will OPEC dissolve by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "international-organizations",
    "energy-markets",
    "organization-dissolution",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether OPEC formally dissolves as an organization by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires official announcements by member states or a formal OPEC agreement confirming dissolution. Only Polymarket lists this event; no cross-platform structural comparison is available. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9LSZJY3C88",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.07,
    "implied_probability": 0.07
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9LSZJY3C88",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y3NCFFKPY6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2dc42ef0dcc603cb57cadb208f78e0675ebb0e2385f7e626c6b25439c6e14d84",
      "question": "OPEC dissolves in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:\n\n- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.\n\n- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.\n\n- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmenta",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements by OPEC member states regarding withdrawal or dissolution, or an official OPEC agreement formally ending the organization by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:\n\n- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.\n\n- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.\n\n- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.\n\nAn OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from OPEC and OPEC member states",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.07,
      "implied_probability": 0.07,
      "volume_24h_usd": 148.33999999999995,
      "volume_total_usd": 31125.714287000017,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "energy",
        "geopolitics",
        "opec"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-Y3NCFFKPY6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}