{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WZJG6PRJ2",
  "slug": "openai-1t-ipo-before-2027",
  "question": "Will OpenAI have an initial public offering with a valuation of $1 trillion or more before 2027?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "openai",
    "ipo",
    "valuation-milestone",
    "tech-finance",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether OpenAI completes an IPO at or above a $1 trillion valuation before December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on OpenAI's IPO offering price and outstanding shares as reported in SEC filings. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle settles the outcome using public market data. No comparable Kalshi market exists for cross-platform contrast.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GZ4SG09R53",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GZ4SG09R53",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WZJG6PRJ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x98dbb998749ae773baf35697d695f5efdc098def32decd687b91c634d8d0481d",
      "question": "OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nAn “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.\n\nOpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.\n\nAnnouncements, filings",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "OpenAI's IPO offering price and outstanding shares as reported in SEC filings and public market data by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nAn “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.\n\nOpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.\n\nAnnouncements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.\n\nIf OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.\n\nIf OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will \n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 46,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 23.49,
      "volume_total_usd": 294561.3684599992,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1A3F97DF1A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "openai ipo valuation",
        "tech",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9WZJG6PRJ2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}