{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
  "slug": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-554",
  "question": "Will OpenAI's IPO closing market capitalization exceed $100 billion by 2027?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai-ipo",
    "market-capitalization",
    "tech-valuation",
    "2027-resolution",
    "business"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track OpenAI's closing market capitalization on its IPO day, contingent on a listing occurring by December 31, 2027. Seven Polymarket contracts partition the outcome space across six valuation tiers and a no-IPO scenario. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using first-day closing price and shares outstanding. The no-IPO contract introduces path dependency: if OpenAI does not list by the deadline, all valuation-tier contracts resolve against.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BDKRCNDT55",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.337,
    "implied_probability": 0.337
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LD6LP88J07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x94f5db837b2d95d30fde488e64f5582b9e6ec0554a0d79a5e1715f3c3e42584f",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<500B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per public filings by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 4319.404082000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 500000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-1E8380CAEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L1RDNNPH44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x59273d3af89fe2ad2115f15c2102dc3511b246c3ba1960978cd99f7f6c35a09e",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "500–750B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per public filings by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.044,
      "implied_probability": 0.044,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7501.673638,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BCFF2F9BEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CH5JHN90T6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8e2476aedbf95b6abfc78987b24e4404b02ee3b0609c1a254938a95bdadbeef4",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "750B–1T: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per public filings by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 7813.022253,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BCFF2F9BEE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2HL49DVF76",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3d876fb6a2136d8aeabb3f6b3c5129af020b8bf3139175c27e94d3c11cfad8c3",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1T–1.25T: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per public filings by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.167,
      "implied_probability": 0.167,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 9817.266731000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7A35B8C8A3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NPG8J5CRM7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0d03656e2a8161736c1165ad844c40d636e240804c220fc7d63565cfbe79422e",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.25T–1.5T: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per public filings by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.14,
      "implied_probability": 0.14,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 5633.845479999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7A35B8C8A3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BDKRCNDT55",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x258cf80073b2deb3b08b53bd96715db3924458eb6d80ad670089cc639aa00260",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1.5T+: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per public filings by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.337,
      "implied_probability": 0.337,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.22,
      "volume_total_usd": 18539.369910000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1500000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-72D0191CD3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "openai",
        "valuation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B2DT8RV4T5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-5CQTPP2DR2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x761b434b358af3e666e36d33a6c3dbfe05bd151957729f62f6820c1c2f98e9b8",
      "question": "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO by December 31, 2027: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per public filings by December 31, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO by December 31, 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
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