{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LNY9F2GGX7",
  "slug": "openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",
  "question": "OpenAI IPO closing market capitalization",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      1200000000000,
      1400000000000
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 800000000000,
        "prob": 79
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1000000000000,
        "prob": 73
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1200000000000,
        "prob": 58
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1400000000000,
        "prob": 34
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1600000000000,
        "prob": 18
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai",
    "ipo",
    "valuation",
    "ai-industry",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track OpenAI's first-day closing market capitalization against five strike thresholds upon IPO. Polymarket structures each threshold as a discrete binary, pricing the probability of clearing $800B, $1T, $1.2T, $1.4T, and $1.6T respectively. The implied probability curve across strikes functions as a synthetic market-cap distribution for the IPO. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the primary exchange's official closing data, with all markets expiring December 31, 2027.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YLBHV9FG48",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.68,
    "implied_probability": 0.68,
    "as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYWTNJDXP2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LNY9F2GGX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x48dc4d6bae89b6401210186b94db6618050505c520b1ead26a5806b978fd0e6c",
      "question": "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$800B: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.84,
      "implied_probability": 0.84,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 3.28,
      "volume_total_usd": 110797.30260399998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-7FF5CCF32A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-H438V5LT37",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LNY9F2GGX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7080086a82babdb1b556ddc543ce616f82764c40c3860002e0ab38396eb8078b",
      "question": "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1T: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.83,
      "implied_probability": 0.83,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1048662.937942,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-2CCC71765C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-45ZW655P92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LNY9F2GGX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb968e32c7d9f0bb75361c39f124f7d25c5791a3786e3d915ff773ad95b99eb16",
      "question": "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.2T: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.79,
      "implied_probability": 0.79,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-04T12:00:24.790Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 249448.0340030001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1200000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-81E359E4E8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YLBHV9FG48",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LNY9F2GGX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd67aaead6a704e74e3503b89b408ab2223cc68f9b86cd06026644d620ba1f64d",
      "question": "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.4T: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.68,
      "implied_probability": 0.68,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 24.439999999999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 68885.77705799998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1400000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-676D57FDB5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PDVTM1CDH2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LNY9F2GGX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x82b7da93a66790027b48e73cff250492ece87b6bfd48e680278f4fee75433737",
      "question": "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.6T: The named company's closing market capitalization on its first public trading day, per the primary exchange's official listing page or reliable alternative source, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nMarket capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.69,
      "implied_probability": 0.69,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-07T09:00:42.355Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 40,
      "volume_total_usd": 51819.54685099999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1600000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-F6CDD224AC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market-cap",
        "openai"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LNY9F2GGX7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}