{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3XLT2VN3Y4",
  "slug": "openais-astra-released-by-20260801214557729",
  "question": "Will OpenAI release Astra by 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "openai",
    "model-release",
    "2026",
    "tech-product-launch"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether OpenAI releases its Astra model by four sequential deadlines in 2026. Each binary contract prices the same release event at a progressively later cutoff: August 15, August 31, September 30, and October 31. Later-dated contracts must price at least as high as earlier ones, creating a term structure of release probability. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Z54GFS6B84",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.75,
    "implied_probability": 0.75
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-71HS0R2K09",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3XLT2VN3Y4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdcedcb11b7599a2daa62e3da77714eecd618ba8825531743159a233724806883",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026?",
      "description": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, As",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 15: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-15T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-15T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nProducts labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "openai.com",
            "url": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "openai.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "volume_24h_usd": 697.6700430000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 4712.683646,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1F5314BBA6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "astra",
        "openai",
        "openai astra",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NKF9X527N1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3XLT2VN3Y4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcac53404ba81a6aa50cf82d94910d5d53a8fec972ec99ccac42bd20c83d060f0",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, As",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nProducts labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "openai.com",
            "url": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "openai.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.31,
      "implied_probability": 0.31,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2872.536023,
      "volume_total_usd": 5506.867077000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6B5FAB2921",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "astra",
        "openai",
        "openai astra",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z54GFS6B84",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3XLT2VN3Y4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaf03b0032d5e71c6072db014aee0974074e0470cdc5b5d715e316379b9f20058",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, As",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nProducts labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "openai.com",
            "url": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "openai.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.75,
      "implied_probability": 0.75,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2093.069415,
      "volume_total_usd": 5816.478305,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-C5D5E5313E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "astra",
        "openai",
        "openai astra",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PTQ6MCMMH7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3XLT2VN3Y4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9dd2d1112783e7fcf3e0f65e832e3ae1a9e13542ca049c6058b766c1fa3165a5",
      "question": "Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?",
      "description": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, As",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "October 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if OpenAI releases \"Astra\" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nA qualifying model must be named \"Astra\" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nProducts labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.\n\nThe release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "openai.com",
            "url": "https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from OpenAI",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "openai.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 66,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.85,
      "implied_probability": 0.85,
      "volume_24h_usd": 97.688911,
      "volume_total_usd": 681.136692,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4726923A53",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai model",
        "astra",
        "openai",
        "openai astra",
        "release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3XLT2VN3Y4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}