{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
  "slug": "ottawa-mayoral-election-winner",
  "question": "Will the Ottawa mayoral election be held by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "ottawa",
    "canada",
    "municipal-government",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track the outcome of the Ottawa mayoral election on October 26, 2026. Polymarket lists individual candidate contracts, each resolving via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. All contracts are mutually exclusive; probabilities across named candidates and the field residual should sum to one. Candidate slates beyond the named five remain unconfirmed, creating resolution ambiguity for placeholder contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9NCH2CX118",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.57,
    "implied_probability": 0.57
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9NCH2CX118",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc4aaf626324e7fb7c855e5190336de1ecae44fcb77a3e13a962cff0420478827",
      "question": "Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Mark Sutcliffe: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.57,
      "implied_probability": 0.57,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 25303.161878,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ottawa mayoral election"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-88RMNBNYJ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7fe9902db2894b487f8a282064bb41a24973b0e2c84a01a9125e7027cf5ae507",
      "question": "Will Alex Lawson win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Alex Lawson: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.241,
      "implied_probability": 0.241,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 14970.242550000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7Y1ZCRD4J3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeb67de02decd706560286fd69c9f133f2f016f7fbe35571bde4a116053418db5",
      "question": "Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Jeff Leiper: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
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        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.15,
      "implied_probability": 0.15,
      "volume_24h_usd": 30,
      "volume_total_usd": 10573.622027,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QG8M9SLBP5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x76f5892d4357a7e75c893c98b6739185f1f1d209b699bc67c25fc0c33ee49578",
      "question": "Will Neil Saravanamuttoo win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Neil Saravanamuttoo: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.061,
      "implied_probability": 0.061,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 3226.2082820000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-79V1BHC2C2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcd0cf3f5c7a33e4778f1f85407f6daf9e6bc6a54b1b25ee6e8f7d2a3e927f03b",
      "question": "Will Catherine McKenney win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Catherine McKenney: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.028,
      "implied_probability": 0.028,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 2976.245088999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-47T38QBLL5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd4971db78d31bab8697345bcdbdca5d78d07810f4d5f4c87a311d747895761e4",
      "question": "Will someone else win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Other: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ottawa mayoral election"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GJLL580133",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x28eba45e8b4d99c5147008b2d3aa62de7a4406a64fb36c9e1d637b89203fa4f3",
      "question": "Will Person A win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person A: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
        "ottawa mayoral election"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6J842GFQL3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb209f303cc7e28527173d17e9ca57a636511ed10b8fcb270530d1067f827c257",
      "question": "Will Person B win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?",
      "description": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to offic",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Person B: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-26T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "The 2026 Ottawa mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ottawa as a result of this election.\n\nTemporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.\n\nIf the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"Other\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Ottawa.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 0,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": null,
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ottawa mayoral election"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-17NNL0VJB8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L7F0NT2FV4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
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