{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
  "slug": "oura-ipo-closing-market-cap",
  "question": "Will Oura's IPO closing market cap exceed $5 billion?",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "finance",
    "ipo",
    "market-cap",
    "oura",
    "2027"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Oura's closing market capitalization on its IPO day, with resolution before January 2027. Polymarket structures the event as seven mutually exclusive market cap tiers, ranging from below $7.5B to above $20B. A separate binary covers the no-IPO scenario if Oura does not list before January 2027. All eight markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using shares outstanding multiplied by first-day closing price.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GXH54LQCX5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0086G5HGG6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc1219243f9bab179c3c6f5a895cdd38a0fc53f301507644bf67c76b696ea3647",
      "question": "Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "<$7.5B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 183.846152,
      "volume_total_usd": 9542.282681,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 7.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-594BCD5B1E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GXH54LQCX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x704e4ea883b17433c66119bde289259b3c7d3668a0101df9c66fda9350f17fd2",
      "question": "Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$7.5B–$10B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 4912.50968,
      "volume_total_usd": 19417.360026000006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8398DE745C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R9S4NY9008",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc80aca25d68cf36c84f6df6e1c424b08e547dc3d8bd23029d36470cfe129e42b",
      "question": "Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$10B–$12.5B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 221.378569,
      "volume_total_usd": 7267.956422,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0CB781A661",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R7TBK1GL49",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x791fdf75b48cc0dbe72afb210d800504ac5ee625a2fab8ceef413b50fe3487a4",
      "question": "Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$12.5B–$15B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 299.882219,
      "volume_total_usd": 6073.133674999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0CB781A661",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-B0WTQQJV75",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x470cb4d422132549e81681852197ddec3f8039a41898d6d6625dc96c149bda30",
      "question": "Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$15B–$17.5B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 656.989008,
      "volume_total_usd": 5050.862264,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8398DE745C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SLFHJ1ZYS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9956b84d1b094a7ba5531f5702bbf769e5a3353dbce2b2c7da69d8bc8a4899e3",
      "question": "Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$17.5B–$20B: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.16,
      "implied_probability": 0.16,
      "volume_24h_usd": 87.88,
      "volume_total_usd": 3458.3487529999993,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0CB781A661",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-931GC51228",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe44161a824b4dc606e43596e7cee266329880ef836e2e3babf6a1a0205661b2a",
      "question": "Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$20B+: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "volume_24h_usd": 165.555554,
      "volume_total_usd": 5293.1732059999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 20,
      "question_id": "CMX-AC56A15852",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "market cap",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S5LWYLKZC9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbfc5804406e3254b98ff869862aebb77dedf35b54374b3c8ddfee73168cac219",
      "question": "Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be bas",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "No IPO before January 2027: The listed company's market capitalization at closing price on its first trading day, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by closing share price, per UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2027.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.\n\nIf no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No IPO before January 2027\".\n\nMarket capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.\n\nIf the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nResolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.\n\nIn the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "another reliable source",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 85,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.079,
      "implied_probability": 0.079,
      "volume_24h_usd": 32.001,
      "volume_total_usd": 563.672973,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AFA9F2359A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ipo",
        "oura"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-TV6FPVN7B4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}